Why is everything based on likelihoods even though likelihoods are so small?

Re:Why is everything based on likelihoods even though likeli... by qup on Sunday February 18, 2024 @11:37AM (#39420424)

> half heads, half tails.

> Under the model where the bias is 0.5—a fair coin—the probability of that outcome is (0.5)^20 or about one in a million.

No.

Edit: someone downvoted, ha. It's closer to 1 in 6.

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Re:Why is everything based on likelihoods even though likeli... by cj on Sunday February 18, 2024 @12:49PM (#39421216)

1 in a million is the probability of correctly predicting a unique sequence of 20 coin flips, in the exact order. (E.g. first 10 flips heads, 2nd 10 flips tails, in that order - 1 in a million)

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Re:Why is everything based on likelihoods even though likeli... by l_e_o_n on Sunday February 18, 2024 @12:50PM (#39421223)

Edited for clarity.

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Re:Why is everything based on likelihoods even though likeli... by BeetleB on Sunday February 18, 2024 @12:54PM (#39421274)

I'm surprised people are conflating the Binomial distribution with OP's statement. He is talking about one specific outcome of half heads/half tails (where order matters). There is exactly one way to get that outcome.

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Re:Why is everything based on likelihoods even though likeli... by qup on Tuesday February 20, 2024 @01:11AM (#39438504)

You only knew that because you know how to do the math yourself, friend.

If you read what he said (I quoted it), he was not talking about one specific outcome. He didn't...well, specify that. He said half and half.

I also know how to do math, as I think I proved in my own comment. So I don't accept your insult.

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