Re:Raising Children on the Eve of AI
by ben_w on Saturday February 17, 2024 @10:37AM
(#39410399)
We're broadly in agreement, the only part I'd disagree with here is:
> Even if the later bots can do only 50% the work of humans, we will still exponentially grow the robots until the humans become a bottleneck. And that 50% capability is also expected to grow exponentially.
I think most automation since the dawn of the industrial revolution has done 50% or more of the task it was automating, and although yes the impact there is exponential growth, humans are a very rapid bottleneck until the next thing gets automated — Amdahl's law, rather than Moore's.
> Even if the later bots can do only 50% the work of humans, we will still exponentially grow the robots until the humans become a bottleneck. And that 50% capability is also expected to grow exponentially.
I think most automation since the dawn of the industrial revolution has done 50% or more of the task it was automating, and although yes the impact there is exponential growth, humans are a very rapid bottleneck until the next thing gets automated — Amdahl's law, rather than Moore's.