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Re:Alexei Navalny has died – authorities by Cthulhu_ on Friday February 16, 2024 @08:27AM (#39396700)
Artillery shells are but one tool though, which for some reason has become the main tool (? citation needed) in the Ukraine war; I would expect more air force being put in play if the conflict escalated into the rest of europe.

Even though Russia has got the bigger air force on paper (https://rlist.io/l/european-countries-with-the-largest-air-f...).

Re:Alexei Navalny has died – authorities by ethbr1 on Friday February 16, 2024 @08:40AM (#39396840)
> [artillery shells] which for some reason has become the main tool

Because Soviet (and ex-Soviet) armies were heavily built around massive numbers of lower-trained conscripts.

It's difficult to conduct maneuver warfare without highly trained troops.

It's a lot easier to throw a lot of artillery at the problem.

Re:Alexei Navalny has died – authorities by xeonmc on Friday February 16, 2024 @09:00AM (#39397091)
> Conscript reporting. Da!
Re:Alexei Navalny has died – authorities by mschuster91 on Friday February 16, 2024 @08:58AM (#39397067)
> Artillery shells are but one tool though, which for some reason has become the main tool (? citation needed) in the Ukraine war

The reason is that neither side has air supremacy. Ukrainian AA defense is good enough to keep the Russians at bay, but Russian AA defense is also good enough to prevent Ukrainians from taking out their frontline defenses.

So with classic air forces being all but taken out, the only way either side can make progress is by using tanks and artillery.

Re:Alexei Navalny has died – authorities by rawgabbit on Friday February 16, 2024 @10:06AM (#39398003)
What happened to the F16s, Ukraine was promised?
Re:Alexei Navalny has died – authorities by inglor_cz on Friday February 16, 2024 @10:29AM (#39398315)
F16s will arrive this spring, but Soviet AA was designed to contain them. None of the expert observers seems to consider F16s a gamechanger on the battlefield right now.
Re:Alexei Navalny has died – authorities by sudosysgen on Friday February 16, 2024 @01:36PM (#39401127)
Soviet AA isn't even the biggest threat - As many Ukrainian pilots put it, the main threat is the R-37M. You can at least fly low and out of the way to defend against SAMs, but without a missile like the Meteor there is no answer to the combination of long range SAMs and R-37M carrying fighters.

Basically the problem is that to avoid AA you have to fly low or far from the front lines. If you fly low, you can't give enough energy to your missile to threaten even just Russian bombers.

If you fly high but far away, there is no way to deal with Russian planes carrying R-37s that will be able to fire their missiles far before you.

The only way to even the playing field would be to give Ukraine modern Gripens with the Meteor missile, as the F-16 cannot fire the Meteor.

Re:Alexei Navalny has died – authorities by fullspectrumdev on Friday February 16, 2024 @02:53PM (#39402111)
> as the F-16 cannot fire the Meteor.

To be fair, the MiG’s Ukraine does have were not supposed to be capable of firing storm shadows either.

But that problem got resolved, and they are now firing them well outside the expected operational envelope and scoring solid hits.

Re:Alexei Navalny has died – authorities by sudosysgen on Friday February 16, 2024 @07:34PM (#39404960)
Not really. The Storm Shadows are programmed externally, the plane just gives the signal to fire.

For the Meteor you would need deep integration into the fire control system, and even into the data links to be able to use it's range as the F-16 radar is not powerful enough.

If it was easy to do, MBDA would have done it and made a lot of money that way.

Re:Alexei Navalny has died – authorities by sudosysgen on Friday February 16, 2024 @01:30PM (#39401054)
F-16s are not much better than the Su-27s and MiG-29s the Ukrainians had in droves. They will not be able to face combined Russian GBAD+CAP.

Their role will most likely be to fly far behind the frontlines and fire NATO weapons Ukraine's airframes can't.

Re:Alexei Navalny has died – authorities by selimthegrim on Friday February 16, 2024 @09:11AM (#39397214)
Can’t we give Ukraine HARMs?
Re:Alexei Navalny has died – authorities by terafo on Friday February 16, 2024 @10:00AM (#39397906)
Ukrainan Air Force has HARMs, but they are VERY limited in their capabilities due to them being employed from soviet-era jets. Basically area where target resides have to be pre-programmed on the ground, rocket then flies to that area and lock on any radar it finds there. But what previous commenter missed is that even if Russian air defenses are suppressed, their planes outclass Ukrainian ones. For example, air to air missiles that UAF has available need to be guided by planes radar all the way through, also that missiles have shorter range than something like R-37, which is fire and forget with VERY high range. Western air to air missiles are much better than what Ukraine has right now, but they can't be fired from Su-27 or MiG-29, they require something like F-16 or Gripen, but while a bunch of European countries agreed to transfer them, Ukrainian pilots and ground crews don't know how to operate them, and need to be trained, which happens right now. If there were trained beforehand it would've changed current situation on the front lines VERY significantly.
Re:Alexei Navalny has died – authorities by protomolecule on Friday February 16, 2024 @09:41AM (#39397650)
Re:Alexei Navalny has died – authorities by mrguyorama on Friday February 16, 2024 @09:58AM (#39397882)
We gave them nerfed HARMs that can't properly integrate with their soviet planes, and they have zero SEAD training. HARMs aren't magic, without the strategy and training required for good SEAD, they won't do much. Things may improve when the F-16s start flying since those are properly integrated and capable SEAD platforms.
Re:Alexei Navalny has died – authorities by protomolecule on Friday February 16, 2024 @10:32AM (#39398364)
"Things may improve when the F-16s start flying"

This could only end with tactical nukes starting flying and with the strategic ones if the US attacks Russia. Things won't 'improve' no matter what happens.

Re:Alexei Navalny has died – authorities by actionfromafar on Friday February 16, 2024 @11:47AM (#39399513)
Putin is done for in those scenarios. He doesn't look the type to fall on his sword.
Re:Alexei Navalny has died – authorities by protomolecule on Friday February 16, 2024 @11:56AM (#39399633)
In which scenario he isn't done for if the US keeps escalating?
Re:Alexei Navalny has died – authorities by actionfromafar on Friday February 16, 2024 @12:17PM (#39399944)
I think Putin can find a way to exit the Ukraine and define that as a success if he wants to. But he still thinks he has a chance to win on the battlefield, so he has no motivation to do that.
Re:Alexei Navalny has died – authorities by protomolecule on Friday February 16, 2024 @12:26PM (#39400095)
How can he exit if Zelensky's goal is to retake Crimea, Donetsk and Lugansk?
Re:Alexei Navalny has died – authorities by johnchristopher on Friday February 16, 2024 @02:31PM (#39401838)
He lied about why the Russian army is in Ukraine and Russians bought it.

He can lie about why the Russian army is leaving Ukraine and Russians will buy it.

He can stop this war at any moment.

Re:Alexei Navalny has died – authorities by protomolecule on Friday February 16, 2024 @03:49PM (#39402762)
Just like the US can stop this war at any moment by dropping support for Ukraine and pressuring them to negotiate. Or can't they?
Re:Alexei Navalny has died – authorities by johnchristopher on Friday February 16, 2024 @04:54PM (#39403473)
Oh, moving the goal post uh ? Pretty weak game you show here.

> Just like the US can stop this war at any moment by dropping support for Ukraine and pressuring them to negotiate.

Just like So you admit Putin could stop the war at any moment ? Good. Why don't you petition for that ? (oh wait, what happened to that guy that submission is about and who wasn't completely on board with Putin's leadership ?)

What prevents him from stopping this war anyway ? Why won't he ? What terrible outcome would he or Russia face if he just declared "okay, we showed the world we ain't no pushovers, we are now confident Ukraine and NATO won't try to invade us because we showed them how strong we are" ?

Anyway, that Putin guy has made it pretty clear he wants to knock off all of Ukraine. Only Russian shills and useful idiots believe otherwise. But that's not what you are, aren't you ?

Re:Alexei Navalny has died – authorities by protomolecule on Friday February 16, 2024 @06:25PM (#39404399)
Putin can back down no more than Biden can.
Re:Alexei Navalny has died – authorities by actionfromafar on Friday February 16, 2024 @12:51PM (#39400465)
Hopefully we are about to find out.
Re:Alexei Navalny has died – authorities by protomolecule on Friday February 16, 2024 @01:58PM (#39401440)
That's wishful thinking.
Re:Alexei Navalny has died – authorities by fullspectrumdev on Friday February 16, 2024 @02:54PM (#39402124)
Return to 2014 borders.

Done.

Re:Alexei Navalny has died – authorities by protomolecule on Friday February 16, 2024 @03:44PM (#39402700)
Putin will be done if he tries to abandon people of Crimea.

"According to Tamila Tasheva, Zelensky’s representative in Crimea, if it were liberated tomorrow, at least 200,000 residents of Crimea would face collaboration charges, and another 500,000 to 800,000 residents would face deportation. Refat Chubarov, the chairman of the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatars, says that more than 1 million people—more than half the current population—will have to leave “immediately.” "

[0] https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/12/18/ukraine-russia-war-civi...

Re:Alexei Navalny has died – authorities by fullspectrumdev on Saturday February 17, 2024 @09:28AM (#39409687)
Oh no, how terrible, all the Russian colonists who moved in after the annexation would have to leave, and collaborators would face justice.
Re:Alexei Navalny has died – authorities by protomolecule on Saturday February 17, 2024 @04:12PM (#39413600)
In 2014 approximately 1.5 million Crimeans were ethnic Russians. In 2021 census there were about 200 thousand more. [0]

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Crimea#Ethnici...

Re:Alexei Navalny has died – authorities by JAlexoid on Friday February 16, 2024 @03:00PM (#39402200)
Kremlin has said multiple times, that use of western weapons against targets on Russian soil will be escalation and they will target NATO bases.

There have been multiple strikes using western weapons on Russian soil... with zero response. One of the most recent being shooting down an Il-76 near Belgorod.

Re:Alexei Navalny has died – authorities by sudosysgen on Friday February 16, 2024 @01:52PM (#39401353)
The problem, at least according to that article and to pictures and videos of shot down HARMs, isn't really the integration. The problem is that Russian AA systems can defend themselves passively using IR or optical sensors, and are highly mobile. Basically, a pure antiradiation missile would only work if the crew of the air defence system makes a mistake or runs out of missiles.

The other issue is that merely because you did get that radar to turn off, doesn't mean that the launching aircraft is safe. Russia (and Ukraine as well) has a true IADS, so it's very risky to get within position to launch the HARM in the first place, let alone stay in position long enough to actually use your sensor package and give more capability to your missile.

Besides, Ukraine had Soviet antiradiation missiles that are extremely similar to the HARMs and that are integrated into their airframes. They weren't hugely effective.

How is an F-16 going to get close enough to Russian SAMs to be able to fly a conventional SEAD mission anyways? The traditional US way of using them is to jam enemy radars while flying F-16s as a wild weasel. The F-16 itself is not a capable SEAD platform - it needs and entire package with EW aircraft and air superiority fighters to defend them.

Besides, the problem in Ukraine is that Ukraine just can't fly even close to the frontline, and can't fly high. That's not just due to air defences - Ukraine used to be able to do this until Russia started using their extremely long range air to air missiles.

Re:Alexei Navalny has died – authorities by piva00 on Friday February 16, 2024 @09:37AM (#39397588)
The USA seems unable to give any more support due to political deadlock.

It definitely could provide much more to Ukraine if both parties were aligned to the common cause of sustaining America's hegemony by being a reliable ally, right now there's one party which the whole ideology centers on going against whatever the other party does and/or supports. Even if that means allowing Putin's Russia to gain more power and influence.

I don't think the vast majority of Americans understand the long-term consequences of allowing the USA to become unreliable to its closest partners (the West in general). You will be feeling this over the next few decades, America's soft power is waning.

Re:Alexei Navalny has died – authorities by mschuster91 on Friday February 16, 2024 @09:38AM (#39397603)
> It definitely could provide much more to Ukraine if both parties were aligned to the common cause of sustaining America's hegemony by being a reliable ally, right now there's one party which the whole ideology centers on going against whatever the other party does and/or supports. Even if that means allowing Putin's Russia to gain more power and influence.

It's even worse. The 45th is actively calling for Russia to take what they want.

Re:Alexei Navalny has died – authorities by mynameisnoone on Friday February 16, 2024 @01:53PM (#39401376)
Stalin called artillery the god of war. Ranged surface-to-surface weapons are the antithesis of close combat, and whoever has the systems with the highest range and military effectiveness can clear the way ahead of physical occupation until political or economic forces compel suing for a negotiated cessation of hostilities.

While Ukraine is training F-16 pilots, this will take a lot of time and money to achieve and sustain, and is vulnerable to parts supply chain issues, maintenance program sophistication gaps, and puts expensive-to-train pilots at risk of loss by being shot down. Vipers will barely move the needle on the course of the current conflict, but will enable Ukraine to defend its territory and airspace without direct NATO intervention.

The domestic Ukraine drone and missile industry is another leg of the table on which Ukraine will advance and sustain self-defense by striking strategic Russian military logistics, naval, army, and air force targets.

> Even though Russia has got the bigger air force

Russia's military is barely functional due to corruption and complacent reliance on being a nuclear superpower. The % of operational jets is barely enough to sustain territorial defense much less a sustained "special military operation". Russia's air assets total 3000 pieces of equipment but with only 7 regular air bases close enough to launch strikes and could only muster around 250 operational strike aircraft given the limitations on maintenance, storage, and the few pilots.

185 fighters

264 attack aircraft

415 multirole

119 bombers

1000+ helicopters

1000 transport

177 others (EW, a few tankers, c3)

https://youtu.be/geSvbR9io3c

Re:Alexei Navalny has died – authorities by JAlexoid on Friday February 16, 2024 @02:55PM (#39402131)
Because Ukraine lacks military aircraft, but got reasonable AA. We're partially back to WW1 there.