Even after a Chinese decimation attack, if the invasion force is not immediatly ready Taiwan will still have enough time to build the nukes.
Realistically if PRC seriously think they haven't eliminated TW nuke production, they'd throw their entire airlift capabilites and drop 50-100k troops a day into the grind and if that doesn't work, nuke TW first and send in NBC teams to an uncontested husk of an island to clean up. If US+co materially impacts that effort and PRC ends up eating a nuke, then we're in global MAD territory.
Also consider nukes has hasn't deterred PRC from security interests less important than TW, they fought US (really all of UN in Korea) /USSR/India, threatened UK over HK, supplied Vietcon against French. If risking nuclear war is what it takes, then they'll (if history is teacher) risk nuclear war.
> drop 50-100k troops
That's fantasy land, most of those planes would be shot down, and if not the soldiers would land in a kill zone with no reinforcements.
Shoot down with what, preempt air campaign would have destroyed most of TW anti air. Fantasy is thinking TW has any chance to deny the air game. Planner for porcupine model US advocates doesn't assume TW has any chance to deny PRC air superiority, only hope they sink enough amphib to deny mass invasion, and barring that, make the ground/urban fighting long enough until US comes to assist.
If scenario is actually about denying TW nuke run, then US won't be assisting. Only other actor with intelligence on ROCA comparble to PRC is probably US. Given stakes, things will get stupid real fast. PLA airlift will be dropping in zones secured by persistent CAS and a buffer soaked in chemical warfare on a one way mission to destroy TW nuclear infra in the mountains if they have to. Maybe TW resists fine alone, and nukes a few mainland targets (assuming no duds, and no intercepts). Then what, PRC nukes living resistance off surface of island and then waltz in bunny suits to breech production sites.
TW trying to nuclearize is automatic invasion redline for a reason. It's not like PRC has an exact contingency plan, only they'll throw everything and the kitchen sink to make sure it doesn't happen.
E: Dang is going to badger me for engaging this thread too long. We'll just have to agree to disagree on whether PRC will be deterred by TW nukes.
Capturing the mainland won't help you at all in that case, and there's no way you would get them all. It would be a MAD situation, and that's all TW needs.
- state-of-the-art submarines. Anything else can't hope to evade the Chinese, and they probably have to be nuclear as well to ensure range and stealth
- submarine-launchable missiles (ballistic or cruise), with a lot of range since China can probably deny the sea immediately off the mainland.
- nukes compact and reliable enough for the missiles