The actual stats on the two point conversion: "About 47.5 percent of the time since 2015 — almost exactly half that of the extra-point conversion rate." The other point is you have to make the first 2-point conversion to win. You can still tie with the next attempt, but not win. That makes the odds of winning by taking the two point conversion, pre-overtime, is 47.5%. (The odds of losing is higher, because you could also miss the second attempt and not go to overtime.) So, don't go for two.