True. Traditional (and still popular) beliefs that sports talents can be identified early are questioned a lot within the sports science community. [1] Canada has implemented a scientifically-based LTD (Long-Term Development) model of sports development [2], and while it's based a bit on concepts of optimal windows of trainability (like the age where flexibility is trained best), it draws on the fact that everyone's journey in sports is unique. This non-linearity is also a basis of a modern coaching science known as the Constraint-Led Approach (CLA) [3] – it's basically a non-linear pedagogy applied to motor skill acquisition practices.

[1] https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2020.0066...

[2] https://sportforlife.ca/long-term-development/

[3] https://www.routledge.com/Routledge-Studies-in-Constraints-B...