SpaceX is already functionally a monopoly at 92% of Western launches with the remaining 8% being heavily subsidised holdouts or VC-subsidised challengers. I strongly, strongly doubt SpaceX will ever face any regulatory scrutiny over that monopoly status in a location where it matters (the US), because SpaceX is the entire reason that the US is currently outcompeting China in space. The US isn't going to fuck with their golden goose, and they don't care if that really sucks for Arianespace et al. The EU could go after SpaceX for antitrust reasons, but SpaceX doesn't have European offices so they can just say no and not do business with the EU. SpaceX can afford to lose European commercial launches, the EU would lose access to by far the cheapest way to get into space (which they might do, to be clear, because getting into space is great but not critical for them). SpaceX isn't a company like Microsoft where they have a lot of employees in EU jurisdiction and need to do business with the EU for their business to be healthy.

> The EU could go after SpaceX for antitrust reasons

They talked about taking SpaceX to WTO before. But that's it. Talk. The reality is that they know they would lose horrible if anybody ever analyzed how 'fair' the markets actually are.

> SpaceX is already functionally a monopoly at 92%

That's a questionable look at numbers. A lot of that is SpaceX own launches, not competitive. Different other parts are DoD and NASA that have a 2 provider minimum already.

For commercial payloads you have other companies coming online soon. Costumes have orders, currently Vulcane, New Glenn, Terran R, Ariane 6, Neutron all have a book of future orders already secured.