BG3 was an iteration into a niche genre (CRPGs) where previous iterations in that genre underperformed (Pillars of Eternity and Divinity: Original Sin). Everyone, including Larian, was surprised.

Not really. Divinity Original Sins and Divinity Original Sins 2 both did well enough for studio like Larian. I think they expected the BG3 to do similar, maybe somewhat better.

Trajectory was there. BG3 is an iteration of those two games and earlier ones.

Pillars of Eternity sold well enough to save Obsidian from bankruptcy.

D:OS sold 500,000 copies in 3 months, making over $10,000,000 on a development budget of $4 million. Not AAA numbers, but Larian more than doubled their investment.

Disagree. CRPGs back then had been hitting a minor renessaince for a while, notably from Owlcat, and D&D in specific has been on a never ending gravy train of popularity thanks to podcasts like Critical Role (and in spite of WOTCs attempts to break that gravy train by making inane audience alienating decisions).

BG3 whilst undeniably a massive success was likely always going to perform very well for Larian. The suprise was mostly that it ended up being a GOTY title I think.

It's _Larian_.

They've always been good. very good. And you know they're committed for the right reasons because they re-did large parts of DOS2 for free based upon community response.

I can't think of another studio who has willingly done that for people who have already paid.

Go back and play the original divine divinity. It's very good.

BG3 being a masterclass in game development shocked no one who has followed Larian over the years.