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Re:Is my plane a 737 MAX? by jessriedel on Tuesday January 09, 2024 @01:36PM (#38930004)
If you think the problem with the 737 Max has been fixed, none of this is relevant. The crude estimate I gave is if you adopt the reasonable theory that the production/operation of the 737 Max is bad more generally, with the cause of the prior crashes being just one of the flaws discovered.

An illustrative example: suppose there was a plane model with 100 flaws that each cause a crash every 100B miles, and after each crash that particular flaw is fixed completely. The "correct" fatality rate would still be ~once per billion miles even after several crashes, and would only approach the standard airplane background rate asymptotically after dozens of crashes.

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