I’m not sure why you’d expect anyone to ‘win’? That’s not really how these sorts of markets tend to work. IIRC, currently VW Group, Tesla, BYD, Hyundai and Stellantis have 10-15% each of the European market (VW has a small lead, but it’s a couple percent); there’s no particular reason to think that any one will take over.

Tesla’s about half the US market, BYD’s 35% of the Chinese one. If anything, you’d expect that Tesla’s current US market dominance is more a function of the relative immaturity of the US market than anything else; for various reasons it got mainstream-appropriate electric cars somewhat later than Europe and China, and the US market is the smallest of the big three, though it’s catching up. It would be reasonable to expect the US market to trend more like the European one over time; a bunch of companies with smaller shares of a larger market.

> Euro-China JV's might be in with a chance

They already are due to Volvo/Polestar and MG.

Clearly, acquiring a heritage Western brand is a great way to help expand market share within the West while minimizing blowback.

yep, Western brand + China build = strong combo. Also ICE OEM's can't seem to compete directly with their own efforts atm, and it's a do or die race over the next 2 years

Nope. BYD is currently outselling Tesla in Australia, New Zealand and Thailand. It is just a matter of time Ford and GM will slaughter Tesla when the tech is prevalent enough. By the way, Tesla has their giga factory in China and still can't outcompete BYD even if just purely on cost. Remember the huge Tesla deal by Hertz? Yup, gone up in smoke. If they do BYD they still have a chance. Tesla is just too expensive, easily double the price and very cpstly to maintain over the long run. Their replacement parts and labour is very costly which seems to be actively suppressed not make into news (similar to their crashes).