Re:Earthquake in Japan yesterday may have shifted land 1.3 m...
by thehours on Tuesday January 02, 2024 @11:51AM
(#38843730)
Actually the lesson I take away is the importance of not having a 0% (or 100%) prior, since it leaves no room to update with new information.
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Re:Earthquake in Japan yesterday may have shifted land 1.3 m...
by roenxi on Tuesday January 02, 2024 @02:38PM
(#38846014)
It is also suspicious because it means someone has assigned a 0% prior to their being insane or in some sort of Plato's-cave scenario - which is hard to justify.
The minimum possible Baysian prior is a base rate of "my senses are just not picking up reality and/or my memory is catastrophically compromised and/or I cannot process logic right now due to some reason" which while low is never going to be 0%. There are too many known ways for human brains to fall over. 0% priors are unjustifiable.