The thinking that goes into things like new years resolutions is also part of a greater ideology though. That in itself dismisses fundamental changes for unrealistic scenarios. That you don't need good housing, working conditions or health care because with this one business, diet or lifestyle trick you will beat the odds. In many countries the majority now are overweight or obese in their sixties. Despite more knowledge, method and products than ever. And that is counting all the outliers who just don't eat much or are very active.

There is nothing wrong with a new years resolution but you have to take it for what it is. Actually getting fitter, eating better and losing weight is a multiple year commitment at least. If it is hard for any extended period of time the likelihood of success is low.

The stereotypical buy-a-gym-membership-use-it-once resolution doesn't encompass the whole of the thing.

Another line of thinking that goes into things like New Years' resolutions is the idea that significant change can only be intentionally and effectively made in a long series of tiny steps. The OP discusses the dual of this idea but misses the main thing:

> The reality is that if you are going to do something that's really difficult, like changing your whole approach to eating, you are likely to either fail, or to accumulate the kind of micro-failures over time that erode your motivation, death by a thousand cuts.

The flip side here is that overall progress is composed of micro-successes over time that build your motivation.

>buy-a-gym-membership-use-it-once resolution d

I've kinda got a hypothesis on this... see in the cold of winter, going to the gym is a great idea. But as spring comes around, you want to be outside - maybe even hiking, biking, etc, IE: being physically active. Then the kids are home all summer and you get distracted with family activities. Then the kids go back to school but you are out of routine going to the gym and it takes a while to get back into the pattern.

My point is, I think we all jump to this idea that the person who stops going to the gym is being lazy, whereas I think a lot of it has to do with patterns of behavior and "externalities."

And yet, success is higher when others support and reinforce.

So don't use statistics as an excuse to be a dick.

And obviously, success is higher when selecting a strategy more likely to succeed.

For my money I'm going to expose the person to a better strategy rather than supporting and reinforcing a clearly bad one.

But it's not clear at all. So maybe back off the take downs until you have better data.

+1. Using statistics about a population to make determinations about a specific outcome is often fallacious anyway. “70% of businesses fail” might sound like it is a bad idea to start one, but of course every business succeeds or fails on its own specific merits.

"because with this one business, diet, or lifestyle trick you will beat the odds."

stares awkwardly at the Bottle of Ozempic in the corner

I don't really know about Ozempic in detail, but from my viewpoint it is two-sided. On the one hand it doesn't solve the fundamental problem. On the other it does, presumably, make it easier. Therefor you don't have to beat the odds. Compared to most other ways of losing weight which makes things harder while not addressing gaining weight in the long run.

With all due respect, your opinion is misinformed.

It’s just like quitting smoking. I don’t really care to scorn the 9/10ths (or whatever the number is) who fail. I care to celebrate the 1/10th that succeeds.

It’s more a confession to the mindset of these people who fixate on the pessimistic side of a pitched battle.

Couldn't agree more. It took me a few tries quitting cold turkey but I haven't smoked for 8 years now and have no desire to start again.

Congrats. This is hard especially with social pressure, like alcohol does or cannabis in some circles.

Depends on the context. Consider for instance a recidivist drug addict - wouldn't you be skeptical that they are going to stay clean this time ?

All that matters is that they keep trying. I tried to establish a workout routine for years and it didn’t ever stick … until it did. I’ve worked out 3-5x per week since 2016 and have benefitted immensely, and have successfully helped others do the same.

Same here, without the "successfully helped others". Care to elaborate a bit on that?

Close friends and family would more/less say “you’re in good shape, I want to do that,” and I’d basically tell them my story and how I made it happen. Tell them how good I feel most days, have confidence, etc.

Most people don’t start, some do but don’t stick with it, a minority make it to that point where they see what I was saying and make it a habit long term habit.

What did you differently to make it stick?

My guess is, he did not do anything different, he just finally managed to establish a routine. There are thousands of reasons out of your control that can help or block you. Mostly it is other people, though. One stupid person at the gym might be a reason to not go this day ... and that was it for the routine, as the next day, there is something else vs. looking forward to meet nice people again at the gym and having the time to do it.

True. And disruption to a routine can be fatal to the habit. Switch places to live, new SO, new school, kids, life events, etc.

Thankfully I don’t have any known disruption events on the horizon. But for little things, like when I have to fly at 6am I get up at 3/3:30 to get a quick (and intense) mile in around the neighborhood. And I workout in hotel rooms, etc.

Each year I tried different things, not in any particularly strategic fashion. I think the biggest was moving it to be the first thing I did in the morning. And also using a predefined workout so I didn’t have to think about. Then following Tony Horton’s advice of “even when you’re not feeling it, just press play.”

There were so many days I didn’t want to but just pressed play and figured I’d get 10 minutes in. But I knew it I just decided to do the whole workout.

Eventually moved off of P90x and mixed in a variety of predefined and made up workout to keep it interesting. But now I don’t feel on my game if I didn’t get a chance to workout in the morning, so it’s become a pretty strong habit.

If you love the person, you applaud the continued effort. If you don’t, you stay out of it.

That you use an explicitly legal turn of phrase to describe a physical disorder says a lot about your attitude towards those who have struggled with addiction, and your apparent disdain for anyone who might not succeed.

I think there's a clear differentiation between how we behave towards individuals vs. how we view a large-scale phenomenon.

For an individual, the attempt to improve yourself is usually admirable.

But I am cynical about New Year's resolutions, and I think my priors are something like "the decision to make a change on New Years is more likely to fail than the same decision made at any other arbitrary point in time because 'everyone knows' that New Year's resolutions fail".

If someone had a problem that involved making life changes to fix or make progress on it, amongst the worst possible prescriptions for fixing this problem would be "make a resolution".