None of the mainstream distributions create nor manage that directory for you.
Quoting https://specifications.freedesktop.org/basedir-spec/basedir-... :
> User-specific executable files may be stored in $HOME/.local/bin. Distributions should ensure this directory shows up in the UNIX $PATH environment variable, at an appropriate place.
Still, I haven't seen any distro create or put it in PATH in the 24 years I've been running Linux.
Also, language package ecosystem tooling — the one thing most people touch that could end up installing user-local binaries — is generally just lame and doesn't obey XDG. For just one example, "per-user global" installation of Ruby gems (`gem install --user-install foo`), should properly install the gems under ~/.local/libexec/gem, and then symlink the binstubs of said gem into ~/.local/bin. But it doesn't; it just dumps everything into its own ~/.gem dir and then expects you-the-user to figure out what dir under there to add to your $PATH. Same applies to Rust, Go, Python, and every other language I'm aware of.
One thing you can do that will almost-assuredly use ~/.local/bin/, though, is to intentionally point an autotools configure script at ~/.local as its --prefix. `make install` will then dump binaries into ~/.local/bin.
The idea is that if a user needs some kind of software and is able to build it autonomously then they can set $PATH and other environment variables to make it available to the session. Please note that in ~/.local there are bin, man, lib and other directories, so you can pretty much build, install and run what you need without bothering your sysadmin :)
These days… some package managers might put stuff in there so that they can work without needing root permission and without messing up with the general system.