Sorry, I didn't see your posting before. The person speaking at the astronomy on tap presentation made it seem much more likely, basically given expected conditions on pre-biotic earth, very likely in a million year timeframe.

I'm a software engineer so I don't readily admit I don't know what I'm talking about. Are you in the field and can maybe elaborate on your skepticism? This fellow was pretty certain they've worked out several likely possible paths. This was last year.