Sorry, I meant possibilities other than "an evolutionary emergent phenomenon where inorganic material reactions create life"

Commenter is referring to the case where life is a common occurrence as an "an evolutionary emergent phenomenon where inorganic material reactions create life" in contrast to the case where life has only happened once, which would be more like an extremely lucky fluke where inorganic material reactions create life.

Where did you get 10 billion years of random chemistry?

The articles I read assert that life began just 500 million to 1 billion years after formation of earth. 3.5-4.1 billion years ago with an earth age of 4.5 billion.

The universe is about 15 billion years old, and chemistry didn't start with the formation of Earth.

Chemistry in earth certainly started with the formation of earth.

Are you suggesting that abiogenesis didn’t start on earth, but self-replicating molecules started evolving in earths protoplanetary disc?

Serious question, haven’t encountered that theory before. It’s kinda panspermia-lite.

I believe you may discussing at cross-purposes.

Presumably like your parent, I believed this was a discussion about the probability that life has originated elsewhere in the galaxy / universe, independently of life on Earth.

Kurzgesagt did a video on this recently https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JOiGEI9pQBs