Firstly, I think that's an artificial distinction. Secondly, I am seeing the almost total end of Russia/Ukraine discussion on the half a dozen social media sites I use, totally replaced by Palestine/Israel. (Mostly pro-Palestine, which makes me an outlier.)
So, no, I disagree. I think the distinction is incorrect and I think you're wrong anyway.
> Hamas is a tiny sideshow.
Overall I'd tend to agree. It's a regional skirmish as opposed to a former superpower making moves that could precipitate WW3.
> The Kremlin wants people to think the West is distracted.
I would rephrase that: the Kremlin wants the people in the West to be distracted. Not the same.
> Note that TSMC has (or is building) fabs in USA and Germany.
I'm well aware. They are far off and won't be ready for years.
> I think an invasion of Taiwan is far less likely now than it was 2+ years ago
I disagree; I think it's getting more urgent, for the same reasons you just gave. _Because_ there are distractions currently, _because_ there are other fabs under construction.
> but if it did happen it would reduce TSMC's production capacity, not eliminate it.
Totally wrong, according to TSMC and the Taiwanese gov't and industry observers and, well, everyone.
> They'd just have to prioritise the important stuff
Who decides? According to what?
> put iPhone production on hold.
What if that's the most profitable part? Again, who chooses?
I am sorry but I have to say I think every single point you make here is backwards and actively not just wrong but the opposite of the case.
Media, perhaps. No one else is. Hamas is a tiny sideshow. The Kremlin wants people to think the West is distracted.
Note that TSMC has (or is building) fabs in USA and Germany. I think an invasion of Taiwan is far less likely now than it was 2+ years ago, but if it did happen it would reduce TSMC's production capacity, not eliminate it. They'd just have to prioritise the important stuff and put iPhone production on hold.