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Re:Why are you so sure I'll lose? by dragonwriter on Thursday December 14, 2023 @05:50AM (#38639971)
> AI doesn't act by itself

It can be made to quite easily.

> and worst case you could unplug the bloody thing

Not necessarily.

> But the guys with the guns are the same guys with the guns

Well, unless they are autonomous AI drones with guns (or missiles), in which case they are different “guys” with guns.

Re:Why are you so sure I'll lose? by jacquesm on Thursday December 14, 2023 @05:57AM (#38640025)
Sure, I've seen those movies. But today it's the guys with the guns/drones/grenades/missiles.

I'm worried about stable dictatorships far more than I am about AGI taking over the world and offing humanity because stable dictatorships are already using every weapon they can lay their hands on to control the population and AGI might just tip the scale to the point where they become eternal. And regular AI (the kind that we have today, because AGI is simply not yet a thing that has been achieved afaik) is more than dangerous enough in that context.

Re:Why are you so sure I'll lose? by mitthrowaway2 on Thursday December 14, 2023 @10:45AM (#38642592)
> But today

There's no question that this is a tomorrow-focused concern, just like climate change or Kessler syndrome, et cetera.

And today's concerns are important too. Nobody is dismissing them. But tomorrow comes quite quickly these days.

You're allowed to be concerned about both.

Re:Why are you so sure I'll lose? by jacquesm on Thursday December 14, 2023 @11:11AM (#38642919)
Depending on where you live climate change may very well be a today thing.

Kessler syndrome not so much.

Guys with guns and missiles: very much a today thing.

Re:Why are you so sure I'll lose? by NoGravitas on Thursday December 14, 2023 @12:06PM (#38643788)
I mean, via Starlink, Musk is working pretty hard on making Kessler Syndrome a today thing as fast as possible.
Re:Why are you so sure I'll lose? by jacquesm on Thursday December 14, 2023 @08:34PM (#38650012)
Not in LEO.
Re:Why are you so sure I'll lose? by tpm on Thursday December 14, 2023 @07:35AM (#38640683)
>> AI doesn't act by itself

> It can be made to quite easily.

Not really, no. You can of course create an acting-by-itself bot but it will run into limits very very soon, because the world model and planning parts of AI are in their infant stages, if that.

Re:Why are you so sure I'll lose? by mitthrowaway2 on Thursday December 14, 2023 @10:51AM (#38642657)
The concern is not about GPT-4. It's about what 10 years of research gets you to when, five years ago, it seemed completely apparent that even GPT-4 was 50 years off.
Re:Why are you so sure I'll lose? by xcode42 on Thursday December 14, 2023 @12:07PM (#38643796)
Ai is having explosive growth and the hype around it and research is definitely at a high. You could say we are in a "bullish market" when it comes to AI R&D ;). Assuming that this persists for 10 more years or even beyond that seems like a bad bet but I guess we'll see.
Re:Why are you so sure I'll lose? by tpm on Thursday December 14, 2023 @12:28PM (#38644113)
GPT-1 was 5 years ago, GPT-2 was 4 years ago and by that time it was quite clear to some that this will scale soon.

But I'm not talking about the GPT-4 either. Many decades and billions poured into research still didn't give us autonomous driving and there is no clear path how that should happen. So I'm not really holding my breath for anything even more capable.