I agree, but predicting the peak of an S curve isn’t easy either, as we saw during the pandemic.

My conclusion is similar to Verge’s: predicting the far future is impossible. We can imagine a variety of scenarios, but you shouldn’t place much faith in them.

Predicting even a couple years in advance looks pretty hard. Consider the next presidential election: the most boring scenario is Biden vs. Trump and Biden wins. Wildcard scenarios: either one of them, or both, dies before election day. Who can rule that out?

Also consider that in any given year, there could be another pandemic.

History is largely a sequence of surprise events.