Based on what? He's a cynical real politik kind of guy, but I doubt this is how he hoped this would play out. At the end of the day, I believe that his legacy is extremely important to him, and he probably did not want to be remembered as the one in power during one of the worse massacres against Jews since the holocaust. Not to mention that it's highly likely he'll be voted out during the next elections (TBD...)

Based on his policies and character. But, obviously, I don't know for sure.

We need to wait 10 - 30 years til people involved starts to write memoirs.

His policy towards Hamas was one of containment and not making a decision, which is classic Netanyahu behavior. I don't know whether or not his biographies agree with this, but this is pretty much the consensus among Israelis. Again, I truly doubt that October 7th is what he was aiming for (happy to change my mind if there is evidence otherwise).