One thing I'm not clear about is whether this could be made up for by just making more. If the US is not exporting to China, that probably means they have a surplus of components for the rest of the world. So it's quite possible prices will go down enough that it's worth it for China to just keep all chips they produce, for "national security".

Is having one really fast and big chip that much better than having 10x 5 year old chips? (I have no idea how many chips they can produce, just wondering if being second really is that bad.)