The remaining org may likely desicate without Microsoft and other commercial investment and revenue sources, but I don't think you can assume a new entity would be off to a strong start without the IP which OpenAI itself ultimately owns (the brand, the software products and infrastructure, the customer accounts, the trained systems, etc).

Unraveling this weekend's drama is way more complicated than you suggest. Both factions actually have quite a bit of leverage.

All the best people you say are just sales guys or people who are trying to create a product out of real engine.

Only 3 people are reported to have resigned.

There’s no evidence that a mass resignation will happen.

OpenAI is the hottest of the hot, there’s no shortage of talented people who want to work there. The people who decide this is why they want to leave are probably the ones least aligned to OpenAI’s mission.

The same goes for the Azure credits. If MS decides they want out then other big tech companies will be lining up to take their place. This makes Microsoft’s threats rather hollow.