The last chart suggests a linear growth in EV adoption even after 3-year-usage cost parity with ICE in 2025-2027 (2nd chart). This seems overly conservative. People care a lot about ongoing costs for gas and maintenance and will flip to EV as the default choice very soon after that. (This is particularly true in markets where long-distance car trips are less common.)

I predict more of an S-curve growth in EV sales. Probably >65% of new car sales by 2030, far more than the 47% in the ‘hyper adoption’ scenario in the article.