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Re:Starship will attempt a launch this weekend by DocTomoe on Tuesday November 14, 2023 @04:29AM (#38261003)
The USA has lost the technology for putting people on the moon.

Records were not kept, knowledge died with the engineers who built it. Materials are no longer available, some of the technology has not been built in 50 years. In the end, redeveloping the stack is much cheaper than using the old rockets. Which is exactly what they are doing - and with every new development comes the risk you are chasing the wrong rabbit and won't, in the end, end up at your target.

Re:Starship will attempt a launch this weekend by wheelerof4te on Tuesday November 14, 2023 @04:51AM (#38261198)
Sorry, but it is hard for me to accept that explanation. You don't simply "lose" such technology or don't make a plan B in case it fails to work for some strange reason.

More plausable explanation, however, is that it simply did not exist at all and they faked everything.

Re:Starship will attempt a launch this weekend by bell-cot on Tuesday November 14, 2023 @05:40AM (#38261587)
Kinda like WWII battleships didn't really exist - it was all faked - because the U.S. no longer has the industrial capacity to actually build battleships?
Re:Starship will attempt a launch this weekend by wheelerof4te on Tuesday November 14, 2023 @07:12AM (#38262325)
There are now destroyers, frigates and aircraft carries that do the same job more efficiently.

I can't really say how we now have a better rocket that can send people to the Moon.

Re:Starship will attempt a launch this weekend by DocTomoe on Tuesday November 14, 2023 @07:34AM (#38262530)
Neither destroyers, frigates or aircraft carriers do what a battleship did - delivering projectiles the size of a human some 15 kilometres away in a ballistic arch with some precision.

We do have rocketry that is a lot more advanced than the Saturn V ever was - but it simply cannot, and does not do what the Saturn V did.

Re:Starship will attempt a launch this weekend by bell-cot on Tuesday November 14, 2023 @08:35AM (#38263104)
> ...that do the same job more efficiently.

I could argue details - but notice that, after battleships were no longer so important, it remained a critical priority for the U.S. Navy to be the "Reigning Superpower" on the world's oceans:

https://www.history.navy.mil/research/library/online-reading...

Vs. how interested was the U.S. Gov't in retaining "can go to the moon" capabilities after Apollo 17 (in Dec'72)? Can you name any post-Apollo, pre-2000 manned-moon-mission NASA programs which received serious funding?

Re:Starship will attempt a launch this weekend by theonlybutlet on Tuesday November 14, 2023 @05:36AM (#38261554)
Ofcourse we could make it in theory, but practically that's not the case. You don't just build a Saturn rocket and moonlander in your own factory (inhouse) one day. There is a massive supply chain. The development cost percentages of US GDP. There were thousands of people involved. There also wasn't the internet. x factory responsibile for making component y, would call their supplier and buy an off the shelf component. Those suppliers no longer manufacture those components, why? No demand, probably obsolete etc. It's like trying to go buy a vacuum tube now when you could simply use a transistor. Imagine the cost of setting up a factory just to manufacturer vacuum tubes that have no other use. There's plenty suppliers that wouldn't have documented their manufacturing processes either, with the knowledge being handed down to whoever is doing the job.

Orchestrating a plan to keep millions in the dark and ensuring thousands, upon thousands of people keep a secret to their deathbeds is a lot less plausible.

Re:Starship will attempt a launch this weekend by wheelerof4te on Tuesday November 14, 2023 @07:18AM (#38262377)
"You don't just build a Saturn rocket and moonlander in your own factory (inhouse) one day. There is a massive supply chain"

You miss the point. They used those rockets multiple times to go to the Moon, it's not like it was "do once and forget" situation.

How could they simply forget things after doing it for so many times? You need extreme reliability and know-how to do those things consistantly over the span of a decade.

There must have been a knowledge transfer for such an important feet of engineering. If not, then the whole thing is not really believable. Sorry.

Re:Starship will attempt a launch this weekend by bryanlarsen on Tuesday November 14, 2023 @07:21AM (#38262409)
Knowledge transfer requires practice. They haven't built one for 50 years, so there hasn't been knowledge transfer.
Re:Starship will attempt a launch this weekend by LorenDB on Tuesday November 14, 2023 @07:50AM (#38262670)
I'm sure that NASA has all the blueprints filed away somewhere, but the reason we don't have a Saturn V factory running today is not because NASA forgot how to make them. Instead, it's because of cost. Between the Apollo 13 disaster, the Vietnam War, and maybe some other factors, public interest and approval of continued Moon exploration wanted, and Congress revoked the planned funding for Apollo 18 through 20, opting instead to focus on programs like the Space Shuttle.

Interestingly enough, the leftover Saturn V hardware was put to good use by launching Skylab missions and the Apollo-Soyuz Test Project, both of which turned out to be valuable steps in the US space program. So as much as it pains me to say, it may have been a good thing that the last three moon missions were canceled.

Re:Starship will attempt a launch this weekend by theonlybutlet on Tuesday November 14, 2023 @08:17AM (#38262928)
The last moon landing was 1972. That's 51 years ago. They were all part of the same Saturn programme, production actually ceased 4 years earlier in 1968. At the time it was the most complex machine ever built.
Re:Starship will attempt a launch this weekend by yourusername on Tuesday November 14, 2023 @08:28AM (#38263019)
>There must have been a knowledge transfer for such an important feet of engineering.

You've never heard of the situation where no one knows how a business critical piece of software works? "Bob wrote it 20 years ago but he died last year". This kind of stuff happens all the time in the real world. If no one is paying for that knowledge and supply chain to be maintained it will atrophy and dissapear. That's why the US army is still buying tanks even though they have thousands in storage, they need a company to maintain the supply chain and institutional knowledge to build tanks. Are you imagining generations of engineers being tasked with knowing how to build a rocket with 1960's technology with parts from suppliers that no longer exist despite no one having any intention to ever buy such a rocket again and no one paying for the maintenance of that ability?

Re:Starship will attempt a launch this weekend by panick21_ on Tuesday November 14, 2023 @09:22AM (#38263607)
Because money. Why is this hard to understand?

NASA didn't have the budget to continue to operate Saturn V and also build Shuttle.

The president and NASA leadership wanted Shuttle. So the last Saturn V were put into storage.

To claim they don't exist is stupid, you can go see them:

https://ids.si.edu/ids/deliveryService?max_w=800&id=NASM-A19...

Yes, lots of those design top documents still exist. But not every supplier and sub-sub-sub supplier did the same thing. Most of those companies don't exist anymore or were bought and bought again.

NASA never wanted to build a Saturn V again. So they archived all the plans.

You seem to believe that they put some kind of plan in place to keep the Saturn V so they could bust them out again. This is simply not the case. As far as they were concern Saturn V was over and Shuttle was the future. Archiving everything was the only thing they did.

Of course we could do a huge effort and recreate the Saturn V program. And the lots of documentation that exist would help. But anybody who has recreated old things, knows that plans are not perfect. Doing something like that would simply not be worth.

Re:Starship will attempt a launch this weekend by Unroasted6154 on Tuesday November 14, 2023 @05:26AM (#38261485)
You lose people, expertise and organizational structure. Those are more important than the "plans of the rocket". Not to mention, would nowadays engineers be able to work from the methods of back then? A lot of stuff would be faster to redesign from scratch (all the software and electronics for sure).

NASA a radically changed it's focus an functions since the space race. Suppliers have changed too.

They could do it again with enough funds and time, but it will take many years.

Re:Starship will attempt a launch this weekend by dotnet00 on Tuesday November 14, 2023 @07:21AM (#38262399)
It's a completely acceptable explanation. Much more so than "it didn't exist at all" which requires enemies with thousands of nukes pointed at each other to conspire for 50+ years.

The issues are pretty straightforward, when the SaturnV and lunar lander were being built, almost all of the design was done by hand, all of the parts were made by hand and the engineers made all sorts of little undocumented adjustments to the designs in the process.

On top of that, the flight computers of the era were extremely primitive, large and heavy, and the design was done with this in mind.

Finally, NASA's safety standards were much more lax at the time. Saturn V would be considered way too dangerous to fly crew on nowadays.

Modern engineering methods are just too different to just recreate a Saturn V without effectively redesigning it from scratch, at which point it might as well be a much more capable vehicle like Starship.

Re:Starship will attempt a launch this weekend by wheelerof4te on Tuesday November 14, 2023 @07:48AM (#38262658)
"Modern engineering methods are just too different to just recreate a Saturn V without effectively redesigning it from scratch, at which point it might as well be a much more capable vehicle like Starship."

I'm all for it, and root for SpaceX and Musk to make it happen.

What I'm saying all this time on this thread is following:

"Man never went to the Moon before. Artemis will hopefully be the first. If man has been to the Moon multiple times using the same aging technology over 50 years ago, then it shouldn't be an issue to go there now. In fact, it should be much easier and cheaper, as the computers are 1000x more powerful nowadays, and we still have fuel/energy sources that were used then."

Thank you for the discussion.

Re:Starship will attempt a launch this weekend by ordu on Tuesday November 14, 2023 @08:38AM (#38263132)
Resorting to a conspiracy to explain facts you miss the opportunity to construct more precise mental model of engineering. And of economy of these big achievements.

It works this way with any conspiracy. It is you mental model, it is your decision, but it is little sad to watch people choosing ignorance over knowledge.

Re:Starship will attempt a launch this weekend by MRtecno98 on Tuesday November 14, 2023 @08:14AM (#38262898)
Astronomers today measure the distance between Earth and the Moon by shining a laser beam towards it and measuring the time it takes to come back.

Now, guess why the beam actually comes back instead of getting absorbed by the lunar surface? Because Apollo 11 left a mirror there half a century ago, it still works

There are people alive, today, that can prove to you that we went to the moon just by shooting a laser beam in the sky, so yes, we did go to the moon.

Re:Starship will attempt a launch this weekend by seabass-labrax on Tuesday November 14, 2023 @12:13PM (#38266204)
I used to think that if it were only slightly off, the return beam might end up intersecting the Earth at somewhere inconvenient, or even missing it entirely. Even more impressively, it took only five minutes to deploy, which is faster than most bathroom mirrors are installed :)

The reason why this isn't a problem is that the device wasn't 'just' a mirror, but rather a retroreflector. This reflects any light back at its source, regardless of which direction the light came from.

If you were really lost in deep space, perhaps you could flash a very bright light (not a laser) momentarily, then look for the return flash from the retroreflector moments later - or at least, hopefully that soon, otherwise you are very far away indeed! A few strategically-placed retroreflectors around the solar system could make an effective triangulation-based location tracker. I wonder if this already exists in some form.

Re:Starship will attempt a launch this weekend by dotnet00 on Tuesday November 14, 2023 @12:51PM (#38266796)
Again, you've glossed over the fact that if the US had never gone to the Moon, the Soviets would've been making it very clear. They obviously had good reason to closely monitor the landings so they could catch the US in any lies and embarrass them. The landings being faked requires a conspiracy to have lasted all this time, without ever being written down, between countries that were one serious misunderstanding away from ending human civilization.

As for cost and 'easier', the Artemis lander programs are cheaper than what Apollo cost, and they have far higher requirements than just being the bare minimum to keep 3 carefully selected specimens of humanity alive for a few days. Hell, Starship is supposed to have an entire infirmary. That is to say that it would indeed be a lot easier if we were just aiming to land a few people in a can for a few days and were completely willing to risk their potential inability to return. We've made the requirements much harder, so the project is appropriately harder.

Re:Starship will attempt a launch this weekend by panick21_ on Tuesday November 14, 2023 @09:14AM (#38263512)
That such an ignornat thing to say.

Do you think we could built an exact replica of the Model T and its manufacturing line? We could build something kind of like it, but it would require a lot of engineering.

The type of plastic and cloth used is likely not manufactured anymore. The processes used and tools used don't exist anymore in the exact same way they did then. And the people trained to build those tools and operate them don't exist anymore.

The idea that all technology once built can just be recreated without any issue is just complete nonsense.

Do you not know anything about how technology works?

Re:Starship will attempt a launch this weekend by avgcorrection on Tuesday November 14, 2023 @10:37AM (#38264572)
If the USA lost the technology then it’s seemingly not important to anyone outside of the flag bragging rights.
Re:Starship will attempt a launch this weekend by wheelerof4te on Tuesday November 14, 2023 @12:01PM (#38266039)
Guess the Moon landing then was just a stunt for putting the damn flag there.

Mission accomplished boys, let's pretend that Moon doesn't exist for 50+ years. /s

For the record, I do want Artemis to succeed.

Re:Starship will attempt a launch this weekend by avgcorrection on Wednesday November 15, 2023 @05:06AM (#38275080)
Glad that we agree.