> will move the other way in a year very soon

China is currently grappling with deflation [1]. That makes it likely they’re currently in a recession.

[1] https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/09/economy/china-deflation-octob...

Probably worth mentioning China kept buying the iron ore (it seems out of need), so this isn't about steel. Trade of coal and many other goods were restricted; there is now an anticipation that exports of wine, coal, lobsters, etc will rebound.

With the collapse of Evergrande and other large Chinese real estate developers, who will buy all of that steel?