You can't predict almost anything anyway. The relevant distribution for acting is a utility+risk distribution over various sets of predictions.

If you compute that, most of ML/AI isnt very useful for most of anyone. It's kinda interesting that generative AI finally achieved something here, given our 'distributions for action'.

Of course the popular conversation isnt there yet, people still think these things work. When more people find their utility hit by their failures, i think we'll arrive back to status-quo-ante-openai where people turn off siri.

Nevertheless -- there is an achivement here (finicial in paying for training; and legal in whitewashing copyright away) -- which will have some impact