Ah, it seemed from everything he said and did that he's the kind of person who actually believed that he couldn't possibly go to jail.

I think that's the case, yes, but I also think that his attorneys would have brought the matter up with the prosecution without his knowledge. No point in bringing it up to him unless there's a real offer he might be persuaded to agree to.

I am sure he could have negotiated a plea deal with the US Government. Well over 90% of cases in the United States never go to trial. I think the reason Sam Bankman-Fried went to trial is he actually thought he could get off.

Its around 98% that plea out in the federal system, but most federal criminal cases aren't notorious, high-profile, mass impacts fraudsters that the feds have dead to rights because the defendant not only decided to publicly recount many of their offenses as a coping mechanism as their scheme fell apart, but also have a bevy of top co-conspirators already pled out and ready to testify against them.

The Feds had no sufficient incentive to agree to a lesser set of charges, and SBF had no incentive to plea guilty to the exact same set of charges he could instead demand that the government prove beyond a reasonable doubt, which at a minimum would delay the process.

The defense team actively declined plea discussions, assuming the quote at [0] is accurate. Several news sites seem to believe in its accuracy, at least.

[0] https://nitter.net/innercitypress/status/1709208392516923435...