But the number of victims and the hardship element probably means he's looking at life.
* 7 as the 2b1.1 baseline
* +30 for dollar loss, which caps out at $10MM, against CFTC's estimate of $8Bn
* +6 for 25+ victims, another cap
* +2 for financial misrepresentations, maybe, depending on how bankruptcy fits in
* +2 for either sophisticated means or deliberate use of foreign jurisdictions (the same clause, one of those predicates is definitely going to hit)
* +4 for jeopardizing (or, in this case, destroying) a financial institution --- at a minimum, +2 (same clause) for >$1MM gross receipts
* +4 for his function as the leader in the crime
* +2 for obstruction, maybe
* +1-2 for grouping/combined offense level, depending on how the conspiracy, wire fraud, and campaign finance stuff groups out.
So that's low-to-high 50s as an offense level. 43 is straight life. But there's probably a statutory maximum in the mix here that takes life off the table somehow.
I share your expectation that it'll turn out there's a statutory maximum somewhere, but the math seems the check out.
If you do it in the order in the guidelines manual, the dollar loss is the first figure after the base offense for the offenses to which it applies, so (with a base of 7 for the wire fraud charge), you'd get to 37 with it alone. But if the tool does it in a different order, putting some of the other factors first, or you work a different charge first and its applying the grouping rules as you go, it would be very easy to hit 43 for SBF at the +30 for the dollar loss, and so get pegged to "life".
The actual aggregate statutory maximum for the offenses he's been convicted of (115 years) will limit the actual sentence though.
Follow up - is there any kind of correlation in the gap length, between sentencing and PSR ?
I could see a situation where the gap is longer than a sentence, and that would be pretty sad for the prosecuted...
But his sentence is going to be so long that there isn't going to be any injustice at play for him to be in confinement for a few months while they work the numbers out. He's not getting out in a year or two.
I doubt he'll get out before sentencing, he's looking at up to life in prison so in addition to having a demonstrated history of ignoring his release conditions he'll also be a huge flight risk.
The guidelines calculations, contrary to public belief, are pretty easy! You will have a pretty good success rate just carefully reading the charged statutes in the indictment and then following the instructions in the guidelines. But the PSR, prosecution, and defense filings all take a bunch of time, and involve "reporting" or "research" or whatever you'd want to call it.
That process ostensibly can't even start until everyone knows what the precise convictions were.
For what it's worth, I think there's a very good chance he just gets the statutory maximum penalties here, because the dollar loss and victim count numbers max out the 2B1.1 guidelines (which, for instance, cap out at $10MM in dollar losses). Attributing specific dollar losses and victim counts is ostensibly one of the things that makes sentencing take so long, but as long as it takes I think the outcome is a foregone conclusion.
† Later: they're definitely not public; there's a whole victims rights thing about getting victims partial access to PSRs so they can be heard in the sentencing process. I guess I can stop looking for them.