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A comment on Google AI chief says there's a 50% chance we'll hit AGI in just 5 years.

Re:Google AI chief says there's a 50% chance we'll hit AGI i... by ziyao_w on Thursday November 02, 2023 @09:35AM (#38113311)
Basically Shane Legg (who is probably not the Google AI chief), chief AGI scientist at DeepMind, who said in 2011/2012 (https://www.vetta.org/2011/12/goodbye-2011-hello-2012/) that

> I give it a log-normal distribution with a mean of 2028 and a mode of 2025, under the assumption that nothing crazy happens like a nuclear war. I’d also like to add to this prediction that I expect to see an impressive proto-AGI within the next 8 years. By this I mean a system with basic vision, basic sound processing, basic movement control, and basic language abilities, with all of these things being essentially learnt rather than preprogrammed. It will also be able to solve a range of simple problems, including novel ones.

is saying the same thing but pushed his timeline back a few years. I assume if you ask Shane 3 years ago before GPT he would look away and murmur something like "kurtosis".

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Re:Google AI chief says there's a 50% chance we'll hit AGI i... by melagonster on Thursday November 02, 2023 @09:44AM (#38113417)
maybe progressing of technology always happen suddenly, we can't predict what will happen.
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