What China's slow-motion real estate crisis means for the global economy

Re:What China's slow-motion real estate crisis means for the... by z2 on Tuesday October 31, 2023 @11:20PM (#38094268)

True! This is well outside of the original point, but Beijing and Tianjin are interesting cases and perhaps useful for regional aggregates because they are essentially black holes that have taken GDP and capital out of their surrounding areas, explaining some portion of the neighboring provinces' underperformance. Kind of like how New York state would look very different without New York City maybe?

https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2017/04/16/523632920/...

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Re:What China's slow-motion real estate crisis means for the... by alephnerd on Tuesday October 31, 2023 @11:32PM (#38094318)

Exactly!

This can be seen first hand with Beijing+Tianjin versus Hebei.

Those 2 cities were under direct State Council control so it was easier to push economic reforms versus a largely rural province like Hebei, plus they were close enough that it made sense for anyone half ambitious in Hebei to leave for the big city than to stay back.

This is what happened in NY State as well with NYC and IL with Chicago. It's called primacy effect in economics.

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Re:What China's slow-motion real estate crisis means for the... by rfoo on Wednesday November 01, 2023 @02:40AM (#38095244)

It would be interesting to compare Beijing+Hebei to Shanghai+Zhejiang+Jiangsu. I believe the primate effect works the same way, but Hebei is significantly poorer most likely due to Beijing getting too many preference in policy making. (e.g. to mitigate the air pollution in Beijing let's shutdown factories in surrounding area)

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Re:What China's slow-motion real estate crisis means for the... by alephnerd on Wednesday November 01, 2023 @08:11AM (#38097208)

There's been some research into this in China (comparative development was in fact the late Lee Kequiang's speciality).

The issue is, research into stuff like this and converting it into actionable policy is becoming difficult, as mid and lower level civil servants don't want to deviate from a literal definition of policies or their mandate as administrations have become much more vindictive due to the economic slowdown. Research like this ends up stepping on people's toes.

http://www.kjjb.org/EN/abstract/abstract18771.shtml

http://www.progressingeography.com/EN/10.18306/dlkxjz.2019.0...

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S187705092...

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S02648...

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