Re:ECB holds key interest rate at 4%
by randomdata on Friday October 27, 2023 @10:04AM
(#38038556)
> Inflation on basic goods remains high
Not at the source level anymore, though. Things have already crashed hard there. Retail is still working off futures contracts from last year when prices were very high, so it is expected to be still high. Nothing happens overnight. However, that is not indicative of a long-term trend. Deflation is the greater risk in the near future as those older contracts start to expire and vendors start sharpening their pencils on the much lower new contracts.
> the housing market has not stabilized
It is true that the home ownership market is still falling (now down around 20% from the peak), but that is no doubt a promising indicator in the BoC's eyes. That will eventually relieve the rental market as well. Rents are extra high currently because people are holding off buying a home until the ownership market bottoms out, which has created a situation where more people are looking to rent than usual.
> In my opinion, the BoC responded to political pressure
CPI is the last leg in a long tour. While it may still look grim, all the leading indicators are telling a different story right now. From my perspective, the BoC responded to what is going on in the economy. Their actions are directed towards managing the future, not the present.
Not at the source level anymore, though. Things have already crashed hard there. Retail is still working off futures contracts from last year when prices were very high, so it is expected to be still high. Nothing happens overnight. However, that is not indicative of a long-term trend. Deflation is the greater risk in the near future as those older contracts start to expire and vendors start sharpening their pencils on the much lower new contracts.
> the housing market has not stabilized
It is true that the home ownership market is still falling (now down around 20% from the peak), but that is no doubt a promising indicator in the BoC's eyes. That will eventually relieve the rental market as well. Rents are extra high currently because people are holding off buying a home until the ownership market bottoms out, which has created a situation where more people are looking to rent than usual.
> In my opinion, the BoC responded to political pressure
CPI is the last leg in a long tour. While it may still look grim, all the leading indicators are telling a different story right now. From my perspective, the BoC responded to what is going on in the economy. Their actions are directed towards managing the future, not the present.