Re:What being filthy rich in China looked like in 1, 1000, a...
by csomar on Wednesday October 25, 2023 @02:19AM
(#38009742)
China GDP for 2026 is expected to be $22.2 Trillion. So even if the US achieves 0% growth during all that time (unlikely), then China wouldn't be able to surpass the US, albeit they'll get very close.
This chart is quite interesting though: https://www.statista.com/statistics/263770/gross-domestic-pr...
2023 is a bad year for China. Their GDP (nominal) will decrease because of the exchange rate. I don't know how the predicted return to growth is justified but from my limited experience these predictions are made by people with limited experience.
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2023/05/11/how-soon-and-a...
>In 2011 Goldman Sachs projected that China’s GDP would surpass America’s in 2026 and become over 50% larger by mid-century. No peak was in sight. At the end of last year the bank revisited its calculations. It now thinks China’s economy will not overtake America’s until 2035 and at its high point will be only 14% bigger (see chart).
>China’s peak looks similar in an influential forecast from last year by Roland Rajah and Alyssa Leng of the Lowy Institute, an Australian think-tank. Others see an even lower summit. Capital Economics, a research firm, argues that China’s economy will never be number one. It will reach 90% of America’s size in 2035 and then lose ground. In so far as the Peak China thesis can be captured in a single projection, this is it.