Maybe all these smart money know something you don't.
"ok let's book next trip to Shenzhen...oh wait, the Chinese government just declared war on FoxConn by auditing and inspecting all of their factories at the same time https://www.reuters.com/technology/foxconn-shares-drop-after.... And they've been detaining Japanese executives without reason https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/20/business/japan-executive-chin...."
"Mexico it is"
See: any cut-off-your-nose-to-spite-your-face trade rules. This isn't like dealing with the USSR, where the manufacturing infrastructure was admittedly a fair bit further back. We already taught them everything they know! Even if we can say "No new toys from ASML or nVidia", it just means it takes them a few years longer to develop comparable tech... and we don't get a cut of the deal.
I feel like the real interesting angle is what happens if the US loses its "aspirational" status, more so than any specific military or economic goal. How long will the world continue to look to Washington for leadership? I think they're already losing a lot of the developing world, with lack of a compelling alternative to Belt And Road and the BRICS-etc. organization.
Alas, as all three of those very simple narratives are mutually incompatible, we find that year after year, China keeps growing.