Does Market Timing Work?

Re:Does Market Timing Work? by oceanplexian on Sunday October 08, 2023 @02:25PM (#37813091)

People keep talking down the US but the only advanced economy reliably innovating at scale. Especially in the post-COVID era, as China faces growth collapse.

You don't have to look far to see that all the major tech developments of our species are coming out of the US: Generative AI, Reusable Rockets, self-driving cars, mRNA, Genetic Engineering, NIF Fusion, VR, etc. The US could strike it out on any single item and spark another industrial revolution.

Plus we're still king of the hill in so many other categories (World's largest producer of energy, world's largest agriculture producer, world's largest military, etc.) If you're an investor, the idea that you'd bet against the US economy is a hilariously bad take.

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Re:Does Market Timing Work? by reducesuffering on Sunday October 08, 2023 @03:13PM (#37813515)

Good investing has never been about X will make a lot of money, buy X. It's about what price are you buying the money that X will make. Right now, a lot of future money US will make is baked into the price of those US companies. You'll pay $100 for $4 of US earnings or $8 of UK/Japan/Netherlands/Canada/Sweden/etc. earnings. People already expect US earnings growth to be almost double. The question is do you think it will outpace even that? Even if you think US earnings growth will be somewhat better than the rest of developed economies, it's a worse investment.

For example, developed economies index, VEA, outperformed US, VTI, last year.

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