Does Market Timing Work?

Re:Does Market Timing Work? by tlarkworthy on Sunday October 08, 2023 @11:18AM (#37811228)

I believe human ingenuity and power over the elements goes up 7% a year, of which, the stock market is a proxy for. We are a networked organism and good at leveraging innovation at a global scale through supply chains. I see no reason to be pessimistic, we have AI, we have better space flight, we constantly improving energy sources.

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Re:Does Market Timing Work? by wolverine876 on Sunday October 08, 2023 @11:38AM (#37811409)

Then why didn't the markets go up in Japan and Europe (per the GP)? Also, why do the US (and maybe other) securities markets increase when the underlying economy is performing poorly?

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Re:Does Market Timing Work? by nickpp on Sunday October 08, 2023 @12:13PM (#37811734)

Differences between countries, cultures and people do exist. These differences will manifest themselves as variations in productivity, ultimately leading to unequal growth rates.

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Re:Does Market Timing Work? by tchaffee on Sunday October 08, 2023 @12:23PM (#37811834)

US companies provide the most valuable services and products by a long shot.

https://companiesmarketcap.com/

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Re:Does Market Timing Work? by pixl97 on Sunday October 08, 2023 @12:31PM (#37811917)

>Then why didn't the markets go up in Japan and Europe

Population aging and growth uncertainty is a big guess on my part.

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2020/02/10/na021020-jap...

The US is highly dependant on massive amount of immigration to maintain demand. Couple that with a few other things, such as the petrodollar, and you have the US behaving in an odd manner that I don't believe will last forever.

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Re:Does Market Timing Work? by Findeton on Sunday October 08, 2023 @01:00PM (#37812256)

What is “the markets” for you? If you mean the stocks in in indexes you’re right, but that’s not the whole market.

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Re:Does Market Timing Work? by sumedh on Monday October 09, 2023 @07:11AM (#37819122)

> Then why didn't the markets go up in Japan and Europe (per the GP)? Also

Japanese companies are notorious for having poor return on equity for decades.

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Re:Does Market Timing Work? by ProjectArcturis on Sunday October 08, 2023 @01:45PM (#37812689)

Productivity and GDP, which the stock market is a better proxy for, do not rise 7% a year.

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Re:Does Market Timing Work? by vineyardmike on Sunday October 08, 2023 @03:50PM (#37813822)

One thing to consider though is that our nation has taken a lot of debt -in many philosophical forms- to fuel that growth.

Government deficit spending of course helping the economy. But we eventually have to pay taxes to cover that.

Citizens debt fueled spending on homes and goods. Corporate debt similarly. Student loans of course. Individuals and companies can only tolerate so much debt.

Our oil dependence never accounted for the cost of global warming and pollution, but we’re about to pay for that soon. This applies to many materials we consume, oil being the most prominent.

Corporations have systematically slowed pay growth while increasing prices, eventually consumers will be unable to afford enough goods to keep the machine spinning at full (growing 7%) capacity.

Our shrinking population from historic highs means each working person will need to contribute a bigger share to reach that 7%, while having more people to support.

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