I don't know about you, but I would have to significantly upsize before the mortgage payments exceeded the standard deduction my wife and I receive as a couple. In my market, the mortgage deduction is effectively dead.

It is dead for 90% of American tax filers since 2017 TCJA. But those juicy standard deductions end at the end of 2025 too, so could be only a few more years before the mortgage interest tax deduction is in play again for many.

Interesting. On the one hand I think it would be political suicide for pols to fail to extend the standard deduction, but on the other hand I think we're going to require substantially higher taxes in the near future to avoid financial repression, currency devaluation(no, not Weimar Republic levels...) and inflation. Should be interesting...

The petrodollar and the dollar's globalization seem like the tipping points.

If either of those substantially changes, the US budget to inflation link becomes very different, because there won't be external sinks to soak up extra dollars.

Globalization will change on glacial timescales. And the alternatives don't look great: Euro (economic concerns), yen (economic concerns), yuan (economic and political concerns), ruble (economic and political and sanctions concerns), rupee (maybe if SE Asia gets its economic integration in order), naira (would need scale from other major African economies)

Oil being sunset is going to be fascinating macroeconomically, as a huge part of the US' world economic power flows through Saudi Arabia.