I think it could be quite a bit worse. Sure we have fragmentation today with distros doing their own thing but these are mostly due to differences either in ideology , philosophy or technical goals.

Having this controlled instead by OEMs run by MBAs who are more interested in kickbacks and splashing their logo on everything could be a worse experience.

GNU/Linux has a great deal of flexibility which is great for hackers, but is also great for those who would seek to abuse it.