> I wonder also how much of a driver new programmer productivity tools like copilot and ChatGPT are factoring into this. If your top 10% productivity workers just got a 30%+ productivity boost, that means you can easily shed the bottom 20% productive workers and still be ahead of the game.

Probably 0%. What I heard, mostly people not performing (which is the real pandemic after COVID-19). If I'm not wrong as other companies, devs there are not "allowed" to use copilot and chatgpt fearing code plagiarism and ending up with some license violations..