Re:What will come after web apps and social sites?
by Caligula on Monday July 30, 2007 @11:26AM
(#37683)
I would disagree with #2. Gas prices have little effect on commuting. The gas prices have not had a major effect on consumption. The larger factor is traffic in large metropolitan areas. Driving an hour each way is far more detrimental than an extra 5$.
Biofuels have their place. They are not the magical pill that will wean America of middle eastern oil but they surely have their respectable percentage over time.
Oh, you meant in software? ;-)
I think that VOIP/videoconferencing/telecommuting software will get even huger than it is now, along with better social software to manage these interactions. There're three main drivers for this:
1.) The cost of bandwidth continues to plummet. YouTube showed that it's feasible to stream decent-quality video to millions of users at once.
2.) The cost of gas continues to skyrocket. As commuting becomes more expensive, more knowledge workers will look for an alternative to commuting. Given current technology, it's easier simply not to drive than to find more fuel-efficient ways of driving.
3.) Certain companies and projects are showing that it's feasible to work in geographically distributed teams. 37signals has about half of their staff in the Chicago office. The ICFP contest involves a very tricky task that's usually performed by teams of half a dozen people distributed all around the globe. A lot of volunteer organizations and nonprofit websites have large (sometimes > 200 people) teams and no physical office.