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Re:Insider trade on Splunk acquisition for 45,650% return by wrsh07 on Thursday September 21, 2023 @03:02PM (#37602419)
Matt Levine covers this fairly extensively

I believe someone in Europe overheard info on a train and was successfully prosecuted. The US has not historically prosecuted trading on inside information that wasn't obtained illegally

So if you research that's fine. If you overhear something that might be fine (I don't think anyone has been seriously convicted yet but I could be wrong)

It can't be enough to say the trade was statistically unlikely because your independent research might legitimately let you make an unlikely trade. This particular trade was very unlikely though.

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