Re:SpaceX projected 20M Starlink users by 2022–it ended up w...
by JumpCrisscross on Tuesday September 19, 2023 @10:32PM
(#37579787)
> cannot say with a straight face that predicting 20 million users, getting only 1 million, is "a good prediction"
Yes, I can. Especially when the prediction is ten years hence and made about a product that doesn’t exist predicated on a launch frequency nobody has attained. 1mm users means core leaps in launch frequency, beam shaping, operations and sales came together. Furthermore, sitting at the deadline, the 20mm isn’t unrealistic. For hard technology venture, that’s a good prediction. (A lot of tech meets its order of magnitude threshold only to learn the goal is unrealistic, ever.) Not spectacular. But also not bad.
Yes, I can. Especially when the prediction is ten years hence and made about a product that doesn’t exist predicated on a launch frequency nobody has attained. 1mm users means core leaps in launch frequency, beam shaping, operations and sales came together. Furthermore, sitting at the deadline, the 20mm isn’t unrealistic. For hard technology venture, that’s a good prediction. (A lot of tech meets its order of magnitude threshold only to learn the goal is unrealistic, ever.) Not spectacular. But also not bad.