Russia has given each and every excuse that you could possibly come up with in 2014 and again in 2022. If you're a defense industry consultant I'd expect you to be more than conversant with the run-up to the second episode of this war and not to swallow such things hook, line and sinker.

Note that nowhere in that article does it say that the Ukrainian side did that. For all we know this was a provocation, as Russia is won't to do. Alternative explanations have been present many times and none of them have stuck.

Also note that there was an endless build-up prior to the second phase of this invasion which had absolutely nothing to do with that particular incident even if it was done by the Ukrainian side, which I highly doubt given the fact that it was one of the pretexts used.

Finally: in that region there have been many actions by either side and no matter what: the Ukrainians are well within their right to kick out an invader, the myth of the separatists has been debunked solidly, until the little green men showed up there was no meaningful separatist activity.

> Note that nowhere in that article does it say that the Ukrainian side did that. For all we know this was a provocation

If you are asserting that the Helsinki-based OSCE was duped by Russia detonating a bunch of explosions on their own side of the line of control....prove it. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.

The extraordinary claim that Ukrainian shelling of positions in Donbas is why Russia invaded Ukraine is what requires extraordinary evidence. And we already know that claim is nonsense so spare me.

Prigozhin himself, one of the primary architects of the invasion of Ukraine, stated that the invasion reason given was bullshit. https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/16721950353732157...

"By February 24th, there was nothing out of the ordinary. Now the [Russian] Defense Ministry attempts to fool society, tries to fool the President, and tell the story of a crazy aggression from the Ukrainian side and they were going to attack us with the whole NATO block."

Not sure how you get more conclusive then that; Putin himself?

So are you asserting that the OSCE was carrying water for the Russian Defense Ministry?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organization_for_Security_and_...

The only thing the OSCE documented in the article you cited was explosions in the region and a casualty in the government controlled areas from the attacks.

It does not support your (Russia’s, really) claim of a Ukraine-initiated escalation

This page has the PDF of the full report: https://www.osce.org/special-monitoring-mission-to-ukraine/5...

On page 2, with the map of the Donbas, the vast majority of the explosions are in northwest Luhansk, NE of Luhansk city itself, and North of Donetsk....on the Separatist side of the line of contact.

That there was a surge in numbers of explosions in East Ukraine is not Russian propaganda, everyone agrees it happened.

That the surge in shelling was Ukraine-initiated against Russian-backed separatists (and not vice versa coordinated from Moscow as part of the prelude to its own invasion)—and, even moreso, that even if it was, a Ukrainian offensive against separatists in Ukraine (and not even against the openly Russian-occupied part) was a reasonable basis for seeing a threat of NATO invading (or backing an invasion of) Russia—is the Russian propaganda.

Indeed, which is what I was getting at.