Because while that part of the law is not unpredictable, the rest of the events rely on too many variables any of which could fail.

Why go thru such Goldbergian process to discredit some politician. It's overly complicated. The result of this kind of alleged "framing" isn't even guaranteed -see Berlusconi.

I just don't see how it's complicated. You find someone who'll have private physical access to DSK, pay them to offer a sex act, use the sex act to create a rape charge, and the rest takes care of itself.

On the other hand, if they had access to his communication, why not simply plant some illicit information or files on his systems. Files could be stuff like banking schemes, fraud, anything you can think of which could cause concern. Another option is to set him up as a source for leaks of some monumental kind.

If we believe his claims, his systems had been infiltrated. So why not take advantage of that?

Instead hope he finds the maid desirable (he so much agrees there was sex), hope the maid is believed and there isn't a delay in her reporting the crime and the crime being reported (forwarded to police), hope DSK does not get on the plane on time (hope he keeps his lunch appointment, hope the police do not defer to an IMF bank head, etc. It's really flimsy supposition.

It's not as though it was long term "grooming". It was very spontaneous kind of arrangement. How can any one find this probable? It's just very unlikely.

If you're paying her, she's going to report the crime promptly. If the police are slow to respond, you have her go to the press. Getting sufficient play in the press so DSK is smeared is really the end goal.

Planting banking scheme, fraud, etc. document would be another angle. Not quite as likely to grab international attention as a hotel rape, though. Sex scandals are news gold.

Whether the maid had a long-term or short-term relationship with her handler, who knows.

Here's the deal. I find the allegation that it was a set-up highly improbable. I thus don't believe it.

You choose to think it's in the realm of likely probability -we differ.

Scandal? Get some composite pictures of him on his Ipad whatever, of him having sex with dogs and Eastern European white-slave hookers. Do it in Paris.

Agreed... we see what's probable largely based on our internal models of how the world works. As the world is changing at an accelerated rate, there's going to be an even wider range of the interpretation of what is probable.