Testing data is dependent on actually testing people, which we aren't doing. However, more accurate measures like wastewater are very consistent with the current narrative.

When a new variant that evades prior immunization arises and starts to spread, that both causes an uptick I cases and prompts the need for a new booster.

Anecdata of one: I got Covid recently, multiple other people around me got Covid recently. None of us got a new booster shot. Not even available yet. Now I don't need it either.

So from my point of view, you can keep your conspiracy theory.

I'll stick to my conspiracy theory if you take a second to look at the data for daily Covid cases, and admit to yourself that it shows no significant spike: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

I don't trust any of those sites anymore because as covid becomes more normalized people stop testing / reporting their test results.

Most of the countries on that list have 0 new cases. Is that the reality or are they simply not reporting anymore?

Yes, I agree with the general premise, that "as covid becomes more normalized people stop testing / reporting their test results."

But it's hard to reconcile this justification for lack of data, with (a) the current headlines claiming a new surge in cases, and (b) the headlines from two years ago, insisting Covid prevalence was not simply overinflated due to prevalence of testing.

I have never reported any of the 3 times I or anyone in the family have had Covid and that comes out to more than 3 because we didn't all get it at the same time. And that was not just "after", this was even when you had all the 'test centers' everywhere and all that.

I know nobody I know who had Covid that ever reported their case. All just self-tested and stayed at home for the appropriate amount of time. Why stand in line with lots of people that very probably have Covid to get tested and if you don't actually already have Covid, get Covid? Just stay home and isolate and get better.

Again just anecdata of a few but extrapolate that up to a population level and you know why they are now doing the analysis through levels in waste water to get numbers. It's way more accurate.

One thing we can probably agree on is that those centralized test centers were the dumbest idea of the entire pandemic. For the same reasons you state, they always seemed absolutely insane to me. So you think you have Covid? Get in your car and drive to a gathering of a bunch of other people who might have Covid. If you don't have it now, you definitely will after!

Nobody is even trying to get estimates via testing anymore, and the tests themselves have been growing increasingly unreliable as the virus mutates - the RAT particularly seems to hardly ever turn up true positives via nasal swabs. Look at wastewater COVID RNA load instead: https://biobot.io/data/

Reported tests are almost completely gone compared to past waves, so reported positives will likewise be almost gone. Wastewater data in the US shows a very clear increase, with levels currently at least half of the peak of the previous two waves.

I just had COVID for the first time. It's been two weeks and I still feel like total garbage. I'm thoroughly done being nice and pretending to be open minded about conspiracy thought at this point. If people want to "just ask questions" they need to be prepared for answers, which exist and are easy to find. The whole time I've been sick I've had to smile and nod at people trying to justify their dumb decisions two years ago. "Your body has an immune system..." and "are they just calling all respiratory infections COVID now?" is the kind of nonsense I don't want to hear when I can barely get out of bed.

It's trivially easy to find evidence in data that cases are trending up. Positivity rate is up and hospitalizations are up where I live (LA county). http://publichealth.lacounty.gov/media/Coronavirus/data/#gra... http://publichealth.lacounty.gov/media/Coronavirus/data/#gra...

This booster has been in development and testing for months. Any correlation between uptick in cases and booster availability is obviously just good planning. It's almost COVID/flu season and vaccine makers try to have a booster/shot ready in time for the predominant variant.

Everybody (at least pretty much everybody) should get a booster when it's available. COVID is awful and you don't want to get it. Feel free to "make your own choices" and "read the evidence". But if you want to go that route, be prepared to accept the answer that getting a vaccine is statistically the right choice for 99%+ of people.

> I just had COVID for the first time. It's been two weeks and I still feel like total garbage.

I'm confused how you open your comment with this statement, as if to express regret that you didn't get the vaccine and that's why you suffered from the symptoms of Covid. But from the rest of your comment, you don't sound like someone who's avoided Covid vaccines. In fact you go onto promote them.

So I feel it's worth asking: are you vaccinated against Covid? How many times have you been boosted? And if the answer to those questions is "yes" and "more than zero," then what is your basis for scolding others into "getting a vaccine?" I mean, did it work for you, or did you still get Covid and suffer from its symptoms?

For full disclosure, wary as I am of karmic retribution (from the universe, not HN users) for admitting it: I've not been vaccinated, I've not been boosted, and as far as I know I've not had Covid. I did have a sore throat and runny nose on a trip to NYC a few weeks ago, but if that was Covid, I hardly see the urgency to get vaccinated against it, and in fact I'm glad that I suffered from such a minor infirmity since it would mean I'm now immune to potentially deadlier variants, and likely to a degree more than anyone who's been vaccinated against earlier variants (research has consistently shown natural immunity from infection to be longer-lasting and more efficacious against a wider range of unknown variants than any vaccine).

I was vaccinated in 2020, had a booster in 2021, and the bivalent booster in 2022. There's no way to know with a sample size of one how well I personally was protected. I was definitely exposed several times to COVID and did not catch it until now. I'm disappointed that the new booster isn't available for me yet. I was a few weeks away and there's a good chance it would have prevented this infection, or lessened the severity.

It's telling how everyone I talk to that's avoided vaccines brings it up. They're nervous about getting COVID, they're nervous about having being wrong in the past. Several people have pulled the same "See? The vaccines don't work!" line. Clearly they work. Even 20% efficacy at preventing infection is valuable. Reducing severity is clearly valuable. Reducing spread is a societal obligation, even if the efficacy wanes.

"I had a runny nose so I don't need a vaccine" is a hypothesis. Poll an expert on the matter (like a doctor) and see what they recommend. Ask them why, if you're serious.

You're attributing nervousness to me when it does not exist. I'm pretty sure we both have as much desire to be right as the other. The difference is, I'm not telling you not to get vaccinated. You do what you want, I do what I want, and neither of us rubs it in the face of the other if we turn out to get the short end of the stick. That's the moral basis I've been operating on throughout this whole ordeal, and so far it's worked fine.

it’s not moral to “do what i want” when that involves causing risk and harm to others. vaccination is a numbers game, and you choosing not to be vaxxed is a choice to be sure.

That would make sense if the vaccinations had any impact on transmission rate.

I’ve vaccinated many hundreds of people. I followed the propaganda closely. The goal posts shifted quite a bit. At the first the promo flyers hinted that if you get vaccinated you won’t get Covid, you won’t spread it, you won’t get sick , you won’t go into the hospital, you won’t die. Over the next year from when they became publicly available the literal flyers and posters slowly changed from expressing the above, one by one the hints were removed until it was just “ You won’t go to the hospital and die” And now? The posters are gone.

These vaccines were never studied to reduce transmission (they don’t). I got my first case of Covid from a vaccinated coworker ( I’m still “unvaccinated” and will be for life). A year later Pfizer admits some of their deceit during European proceedings.

Furthermore, I will turn your phrase that it’s wrong to “do what I want” when it hurts others. Let’s forget about the grievous discrimination, slander, and hatred I suffered as I continued to serve on the frontlines (hero to zero!). People have legitimately been vaccine injured. Sometimes servely sometimes not, but a lot of those people were forced to do what you wanted (mandates, peer pressure, public hatred) and they got hurt. They got hurt with a forced experimental medical treatment that was presented as totally harmless, super duper studied and safe, extremely effective. Each pf those points are lies but a lot of people made a lot of money and power, so that’s good. Have you looked into how they calculated how the vaccines lowers your risk of death? Look at the actual numbers? 15 people died in the control arm, 14 in the vaccinated; ergo it’s highly safe and effective.

As to masks, highest quality evidence says that they are for show at worst or at best , nobody knows that they do anything so mandates are silly . Cochran systematic review https://www.cochranelibrary.com/cdsr/doi/10.1002/14651858.CD... also

I would recommend looking at your health

Ive had COVID several times and while I won't say it's pleasant, it's like 3 days of bad cold followed by a swift recovery.

My seventy year old parents have had similar trajectories.

If it's taking weeks, I'd be concerned about my overall health and immune system

Different people react differently. Just like any other virus (see: smallpox and polio).

We saw bad-ass MMA fighters absolutely pounded by Covid. We saw pasty, wimpy Hollywood actors get through Covid with barely a sniffle.

The problem is that you don't know which Covid group you are in until after you get infected with it.

This is why we vaccinate.

You are on to something. There definitely is a correlation between the availability of the upcoming booster shot and the "uptick" in Covid cases. It's not surprising though. It's called cold season. The entire point of the new booster shot is that it is targeting specific strains that are likely to be prevalent this fall.

> but isn't there a surprising correlation between the availability of the upcoming booster shot and the "uptick" in covid cases?

No conspiracy required: everybody going back to school was going to cause an uptick irrespective of booster.

However, things are exacerbated by the booster being late. The booster was supposed to be out in August before everybody went back to school.