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Re:The U.S. Housing Market vs. the Canadian Housing Market by fallingknife on Saturday September 09, 2023 @02:53PM (#37449002)
It's not, though. Since 1970 home prices in the US have gone up 16x and the S&P 500 has gone up 44x. Adjusted for inflation, that's 2x for houses and 5.5x for stocks. And you don't have to sell your stock if you have to move (and take a 6% hit on RE agent commissions) or pay money to maintain it. You can borrow against it whenever you want with just the click of a button. Of course housing sounds like a great form of wealth when you compare it to the hilariously bad investment of a bag of diamonds in a safe.
Re:The U.S. Housing Market vs. the Canadian Housing Market by kjkjadksj on Saturday September 09, 2023 @03:39PM (#37449489)
You are looking at avg gain. I can tell you anecdotally that over the past 25 years there have been markets that have barely budged at all in median prices, and markets that have seen fold change gains in median home prices. In some markets you are doing a lot worse than the index, in others you handily beat the index and these are generally the ones people bemoan in cost of living articles in the media.
Re:The U.S. Housing Market vs. the Canadian Housing Market by epistasis on Saturday September 09, 2023 @03:29PM (#37449389)
These calculations ignore that most homes are eligible for extreme amounts of highly protected leverage. Sure, you can trade on margin on the stock market, but you are subject to margin calls, which is not the case with a home.

So multiple that 16x by the typical 4x-5x leveraging, and homes turn out to be really great. And since the transaction fees and the non-existence of index funds in the 1970s made it harder to invest in the stock market at a small scale, and homes were a much better investment.

Add on to that that everybody needs a place to live, and your home acting as an investment vehicle with equivalent performance to the US stock market, and people from the 1970s have had had an amazing deal that younger people have not had access to.

Re:The U.S. Housing Market vs. the Canadian Housing Market by fallingknife on Saturday September 09, 2023 @04:08PM (#37449750)
But you have to put that capital in anyway because house leverage is amortizing. Margin debt is not.
Re:The U.S. Housing Market vs. the Canadian Housing Market by compiler-guy on Saturday September 09, 2023 @05:11PM (#37450325)
All that leverage absolutely crushed investors in the 2008 housing crash, and is again now ruining people who had poor or nonexistent interest rate hedges.

The idea that it’s easy or natural to make money via leveraged housing had ruined many people.

Re:The U.S. Housing Market vs. the Canadian Housing Market by ozr on Saturday September 09, 2023 @06:36PM (#37450996)
This isn't really a thing in the US right now. Less than 10% of mortgages are adjustable. The share of ARMs in 08 was much, much higher.
Re:The U.S. Housing Market vs. the Canadian Housing Market by ethbr1 on Saturday September 09, 2023 @10:47PM (#37452443)
*/1 ARMs are insane and shouldn't be allowed in the market.

*/5s or even */3s offer an interesting option, depending on terms.

Re:The U.S. Housing Market vs. the Canadian Housing Market by refurb on Saturday September 09, 2023 @09:57PM (#37452207)
Yup, people don't realize that leverage works both way. It's not a freebie.
Re:The U.S. Housing Market vs. the Canadian Housing Market by max51 on Saturday September 09, 2023 @03:35PM (#37449444)
The difference here is that you would make 44x from the spare change you can save every month after paying for rent, not from a loan worth >5x your yearly salary.
Re:The U.S. Housing Market vs. the Canadian Housing Market by fallingknife on Saturday September 09, 2023 @04:13PM (#37449803)
A loan which you have to pay back with interest. So unless home prices are rising faster than interest rates, you're losing on that deal
Re:The U.S. Housing Market vs. the Canadian Housing Market by epistasis on Saturday September 09, 2023 @04:27PM (#37449941)
Or, you know, you rent out the place.

And if you are your own landlord (ie a homeowner) you can pretend your rent is whatever you want, but the market rent is what one should impute as the value of that rent.

Re:The U.S. Housing Market vs. the Canadian Housing Market by fallingknife on Saturday September 09, 2023 @05:15PM (#37450359)
Which you can still lose on. Most major markets in the US now rent below cost to own.
Re:The U.S. Housing Market vs. the Canadian Housing Market by ozr on Saturday September 09, 2023 @06:43PM (#37451050)
Yes, but:

1) Historically they have.

2) Most people in the US that haven't purchased very recently are locked in at very low rates. Only 9% of mortgages are over 6%. 61% of outstanding mortages are <4% [0].

3) There are a lot of incentives (and the ability) for governments to ensure home prices continue to increase, although at a rate lower than they are now.

4) We spent over a year with inflation that is double most people's mortgage rates.

5) You have to live somewhere regardless; the alternative is renting. For most of the country, at least until very recently, that was a worse option.

[0] https://apolloacademy.com/the-distribution-of-mortgage-inter...