Re:Exxon says world set to fail 2°C global warming cap by 2050
by matthewdgreen on Wednesday August 30, 2023 @10:39AM
(#37322817)
> How did your view on this change, and why?
A huge turning point for me was when climate scientists brought forward their estimates for ice-free arctic summers by 1-2 decades. That's a huge revision, and it made me realize that consensus climate science predictions (as terrifying as they are) are probably weighted toward being much too optimistic.
> my view is that the electorate is mostly still unwilling to make sacrifices in favor of climate action
The electorate has made huge sacrifices in favor of climate change. We just passed a 1/2 trillion dollars worth of climate incentives in the IRA, and a majority of voters say they support the incentives. Polling also supports that most Americans think climate change is a problem, and want the government to do something about it.
The important thing to remember here is that this doesn't get cheaper or better as we get farther out. Right now we're experiencing an exponential decrease in the LCOE of renewable energy, mainly stimulated by industrial policy in the US, Europe and China. If we'd pursued those policies earlier (either explicitly, or via a tiny carbon tax in the 2000s) we would now be a decade deeper into an exponential process. Instead we somehow managed to spend nearly $1 trillion on a war in Iraq.
A huge turning point for me was when climate scientists brought forward their estimates for ice-free arctic summers by 1-2 decades. That's a huge revision, and it made me realize that consensus climate science predictions (as terrifying as they are) are probably weighted toward being much too optimistic.
> my view is that the electorate is mostly still unwilling to make sacrifices in favor of climate action
The electorate has made huge sacrifices in favor of climate change. We just passed a 1/2 trillion dollars worth of climate incentives in the IRA, and a majority of voters say they support the incentives. Polling also supports that most Americans think climate change is a problem, and want the government to do something about it.
The important thing to remember here is that this doesn't get cheaper or better as we get farther out. Right now we're experiencing an exponential decrease in the LCOE of renewable energy, mainly stimulated by industrial policy in the US, Europe and China. If we'd pursued those policies earlier (either explicitly, or via a tiny carbon tax in the 2000s) we would now be a decade deeper into an exponential process. Instead we somehow managed to spend nearly $1 trillion on a war in Iraq.