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Re:NY Times Rides in Waymo Robotaxis in SF by checkyoursudo on Tuesday August 22, 2023 @09:04AM (#37222124)
I don't disagree that we live in a relatively good time right now, but I do wonder if this is the best it has ever been in the history of humanity.

We have more pollution (air, water, noise, light), more cancer, more heart disease, more obesity, more addiction, more suicide, much worse environmental impact, and so on (though these are the worst that I can think of off the top of my head).

Your points about safety, violence, money, etc, are all good, and there are many other really positive things about the present, for sure, but it is not clear to me that we are absolutely better off than at any time in the past.

There were some bad times, and there is too much nostalgia by well-off people for past times when they were well-off while most others were not.

I think that things are in general pretty good right now. Modern medicine alone makes me prefer to live now than wish I were some scruffy medieval peasant. We have microplastics miles up in the atmosphere. We should recognize that we have paid a huge price for how we live now, and that price might not have been worth it. I don't know how we judge one way or the other.

Anyway. I wish I could see the stars. I wish there was still real wilderness. I wish that PFAS weren't almost literally everywhere. I wish farmers selected for flavor rather than size or density. Etc.

Now, the 1990s! That was the best time in human history. ;)

Re:NY Times Rides in Waymo Robotaxis in SF by pb7 on Tuesday August 22, 2023 @09:23AM (#37222357)
Not interested in commenting on the rest but we do not have more cancer, we are just better at detecting cancer, especially early on.
Re:NY Times Rides in Waymo Robotaxis in SF by Retric on Tuesday August 22, 2023 @09:48AM (#37222667)
No both the absolute and rate of of cancers has increased. Even if you ignore environmental factors older people get more cancer and we have more older people today. Age adjusted cancer rates for some kinds of cancers have dropped because fewer people smoke etc, but it’s not universal across all cancers.

We do also detect more cancers early, but that also makes cancer treatment look better. Aka 5 year survival rates look better when you start the clock sooner.

Re:NY Times Rides in Waymo Robotaxis in SF by pb7 on Tuesday August 22, 2023 @09:50AM (#37222708)
You touch upon it in your comment and giving it zero weight for some reason: you can’t develop most types of cancer if you die at 30 (extreme example).
Re:NY Times Rides in Waymo Robotaxis in SF by Retric on Tuesday August 22, 2023 @09:56AM (#37222784)
Because it’s irrelevant when the global age adjusted cancer rates are increasing overall.

An increasing number of people under 30 are developing cancer. America is only 4% of global population, if you want a better picture look at China and India which have both skyrocketed pollution levels recently.

Re:NY Times Rides in Waymo Robotaxis in SF by prepend on Tuesday August 22, 2023 @12:10PM (#37224771)
Also we live longer so it’s more likely to detect and die from cancer.

Even over 100 years ago is true incidence of cancer higher? Not to mention why we would think we have more cancer now than 1000 years ago. Or perhaps we have more cancer but that’s because people aren’t dying of other things first, so it doesn’t matter we have more cancer.

This is the kind of counterproductive examples I find people arguing about. Of course there are more vehicle accidents now, but that’s because there’s more people driving, not that cars are more dangerous.

Re:NY Times Rides in Waymo Robotaxis in SF by kn0where on Tuesday August 22, 2023 @01:57PM (#37226378)
Cars have absolutely gotten more dangerous as they’ve increased in size — for anyone outside of one.
Re:NY Times Rides in Waymo Robotaxis in SF by prepend on Tuesday August 22, 2023 @09:47PM (#37230922)
Yet vehicle mortality rate has decreased [0] and pedestrian mortality rate is a bit trickier as over the past 40 years it dropped and then climbed back to where it was in absolute numbers [1]. So it’s definitely less dangerous based on the rate of drivers, passengers and pedestrians who die each year.

Please share any better metrics you like for showing increase in danger.

[0] https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/yearl...

[1] https://www.axios.com/2023/06/23/pedestrian-deaths-cars-suvs...

Re:NY Times Rides in Waymo Robotaxis in SF by enoch_r on Tuesday August 22, 2023 @10:41AM (#37223431)
[delayed]
Re:NY Times Rides in Waymo Robotaxis in SF by DanBC on Wednesday August 23, 2023 @06:27PM (#37242693)
> Cancer: US deaths are way down since the 1990s, though it's cheating a bit since that was the top of the smoking-related spike in lung cancer. Still, other cancer deaths are way down since then too. [6][7] (Edit: worldwide this looks worse and things have increased lately, see: <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/number-of-people-with-can...)

> Heart disease: can't find long term stats on this quickly, but cardiovascular mortality is way down. [8]

And these two are linked. If most people get their cancer in their 70s, but they're dying of heart attacks in their 50s, anything that stops people dying of heart attacks is going to increase the number of people getting cancer.

Re:NY Times Rides in Waymo Robotaxis in SF by checkyoursudo on Friday August 25, 2023 @09:03PM (#37268936)
I don't have any quibble with your stats. Thanks for supplying them.

I was kidding about the 1990s. :)

Have you seen the maps that show where PFAS are? (Nearly everywhere.) Micro and macro plastics? (Pretty much everywhere.) Pollution (air and water) is absolutely up from pre-industrial levels.

Look, I am really not saying that now is worse than any time in the past. I think things are pretty good right now, except for a few real tragic issues and localities. All I am saying is that I am not 100% sure that now is undeniably better than at any time in the past of human history.

I think your stats make a pretty compelling case that the story is a bit mixed at the moment, especially depending on how someone might define what the best time to be alive would entail.

(Really, the 90s thing was just a joke.)