Re:Ask HN: What's the biggest red flag you've encountered du...
by scarby2 on Monday August 21, 2023 @07:44PM
(#37216794)
futures contracts work somewhat well for farmers. There's a level of certainty provided and they are reducing their risk so that a low price at the end of the season doesn't ruin them (however they also don't profit from a higher price). As a farmer i would likely prefer to sell a certain percentage of my goods with a futures contract so that i can have less risk of financial ruin.
Re:Ask HN: What's the biggest red flag you've encountered du...
by wdg3 on Monday August 21, 2023 @09:03PM
(#37217306)
The relationship between futures traders and farmers is pretty much identical to that between any kind of insurance company and its customers - it's a risk arbitrage transaction where the client (farmers in this case) are sacrificing profit in expectation for a flatter outcome curve which in a properly priced market yields higher utility in expectation, since utility as a function of profit is concave for an individual farmer and much closer to linear for a well-capitalized market maker.
Re:Ask HN: What's the biggest red flag you've encountered du...
by abdullahkhalids on Monday August 21, 2023 @11:04PM
(#37218152)
I understand the mathematics. The problem is that there is a practical asymmetry of information. Large future traders can invest a lot of resources into getting a much better prediction of future prices, while individual farmers cannot. In such scenarios, it is inevitable that farmers will be exploited by future traders into making bad deals.
Re:Ask HN: What's the biggest red flag you've encountered du...
by malloryerik on Tuesday August 22, 2023 @02:04AM
(#37219195)
You might try examining -- with an open mindset -- a few CFTC Commitments of Traders reports and then see if you feel the same way.
Re:Ask HN: What's the biggest red flag you've encountered du...
by boring_twenties on Tuesday August 22, 2023 @02:07PM
(#37226491)
This reasoning seems suspicious. Why would farmers choose to use futures markets if it doesn't benefit them?
For instance, the oil/car industry pays for basically none of the large negative externalities they create. In this case, I hazard that futures industry captures more value than they create. And that value is extracted from other players in the vertical chain, particularly farmers.