Re:Probability Can Bite
by kgwgk on Monday August 21, 2023 @03:18PM
(#37214078)
I don't get it.
If I say that I have two children and (at least) one is a boy you will say that the probability that I have one boy and one girl is 2/3.
If I say that I have two children and (at least) one is a girl you will say that the probability that I have one boy and one girl is 2/3.
If I say that I have two children and (at least) one is a [unintelligible] will you say that the probability that I have one boy and one girl is 1/2 or 2/3?
Edit: If you're going to say that [unintelligible] could be anything other than boy or girl - and are not willing to assume that it has to be one or the other consider the following alternatives:
If I say that I have two children and (at least) one is a [word in foreign language that you know that means girl or boy but you don't remember which one] will you say that the probability that I have one boy and one girl is 1/2 or 2/3?
If I say that I have two children and (at least) one is [of the same sex as the first child of some other person that you don't know] will you say that the probability that I have one boy and one girl is 1/2 or 2/3?
If I say that I have two children and (at least) one is a boy you will say that the probability that I have one boy and one girl is 2/3.
If I say that I have two children and (at least) one is a girl you will say that the probability that I have one boy and one girl is 2/3.
If I say that I have two children and (at least) one is a [unintelligible] will you say that the probability that I have one boy and one girl is 1/2 or 2/3?
Edit: If you're going to say that [unintelligible] could be anything other than boy or girl - and are not willing to assume that it has to be one or the other consider the following alternatives:
If I say that I have two children and (at least) one is a [word in foreign language that you know that means girl or boy but you don't remember which one] will you say that the probability that I have one boy and one girl is 1/2 or 2/3?
If I say that I have two children and (at least) one is [of the same sex as the first child of some other person that you don't know] will you say that the probability that I have one boy and one girl is 1/2 or 2/3?