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A comment on Probability Can Bite. Parent comment
You’re right.
I wrote in another comment the solution down to this two unspecified elements:
P(you tell me that you have two children including at least one boy | you have two boys)
P(you tell me that you have two children including at least one boy | you have one boy and one girl)
If one assumes that they are equal (why?) the answer is 1/3.
If one assumes that the latter is half as probable the answer is 1/2.
Whatever the assumption that one finds more natural the point is that an assumption is needed.
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You’re right.
I wrote in another comment the solution down to this two unspecified elements:
P(you tell me that you have two children including at least one boy | you have two boys)
P(you tell me that you have two children including at least one boy | you have one boy and one girl)
If one assumes that they are equal (why?) the answer is 1/3.
If one assumes that the latter is half as probable the answer is 1/2.
Whatever the assumption that one finds more natural the point is that an assumption is needed.