My sense is that you data set is drawn primarily from 2010 to 2022, the current funding environment has different properties (closer to 2008-9 and 2001-3).
You think it's gotten easier, since 2022, to get an A-round term sheet without first getting a seed round?
I think it was easier 96-2000, harder 2001-4, easier 2005-7, harder 2008-2010, easier 2011-2022 (March), harder since March 2022.
I was suggesting you were judging the likely 2022-2025 funding environment based on 2011-2022 (March). I think startups will be better served, where they can, to bootstrap for the next two years than making plans that require funding to get started.
Reasonable men may differ but you have been at this for a while and experienced the dotcom boom, the meltdown, 2008, and the post 2011 boom.
I think it might help to remember the investment strategy VC firms have. No matter how you structure a startup, it is more likely than not to fail; that's what companies do. The winners in an investment portfolio have to pay for the losers, which mean the winners have to pay big. And funds themselves have lifespans; for several reasons, they need to reach an answer on investments within a set timespan.
I think not raising money at all is a great strategy, and when it's viable, it's probably always superior. But if you're going to raise at all, slogging it out on pure sweat equity isn't a great way to build up credibility for an A-round. It might have been in 1999, but I don't think it is now; now, I think if you want to raise an A-round, the happy path is to raise a syndicated seed round first, and clearing the way for that seed round is probably one of the 3 biggest things you get out of YC.